No. of Recommendations: 0
rrr:
Nice chart. What is the chart saying about the four-year return starting today?
Nice. Don't be shy ask for what you really want to know. The worst that can happen is you won't learn anything, but maybe there will be a helpful answer! I learned this in querying Chat. Ask for what you really want.
The chart published in my blog post goes up to EOY 2025 and shows:
1) Stock price above the trend line
2) Book above its trend line, but not quite as much as Stock Price is
3) A current P/B of about 1.5 which, at least in nominal terms, seems to be predictive of flat to normal growth, is NOT predictive of stock price actually going down (in my semi-quantitative semi-intuitive estimation anyway).
I would also say I don't think there is any evidence that we predict anything about 4 years in the future with this stuff. I think the trend line is the best prediction of 4 years out, and what the bumps and wiggles tell you about, if anything, is the next 1 to 2 years.
Myself, I added a bit to BRK in the last month which is in my "not-AI" pile which is smaller than my AI pile these days. My only other "not-AI" pile is MRFOX for what its worth. I still think AI has a factor of a few to grow, but am definitely aware that current pricing of those stocks assumes a bunch of trillions of returns before too long and there could be a lot of reasons that doesn't happen soon enough to justify current prices. But NVidia still has quite a backlog and a chip that everybody compares themselves to, so what the heck, I'm still in.
Cheers,
R:)
