*                         8/14     8/21     8/28     9/4/23
S&P 500 Index             4464.05  4369.71  4405.71  4515.77
Trailing 12 month PE      24.17    23.64    23.65    24.34
Trail Earnings yield      4.14%    4.23%    4.23%    4.11%
Forward 12 month PE       21.16    20.60    20.68    21.00
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.73%    4.85%    4.84%    4.76%
90 day tbill yield        5.54     5.55     5.61     5.53
10 year tbond yield       4.16%    4.26%    4.25%    4.18%
Arezi Ratio               1.34     1.31     1.33     1.35
Fed Ratio                 0.88     0.88     0.88     0.88

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 53%
stocks, 47% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 23%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 70%.

Elan

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