No. of Recommendations: 0
I guess I can't see buying bonds as a real income investment nowadays. There's way too much capital floating around out there for anything like a decent return at anything like a decent level of real risk.
(And, I've groused about bond funds elsewhere. Bottom line: I don't trust their holdings to be/do what they claim under stress)
It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where -- after some lag measured in a few months -- plain Treasuries won't keep up with inflation. So a plain Treasuries ladder (12, 24, 36 month) seems to me the safest way to keep most capital preservation, mostly.
The ladder won't grow in value, and because of the lag will probably slip a bit. But in retirement it's an asset pool to draw down while you're waiting for the equity market to recover from whatever swoon it's having at the moment. For example, we all were pretty much certain the Covid market swoon was going to be self-limited - but it would have been extremely painful to have to sell...well, anything, pretty much - to pay the grocery and utility bills in mid 2020.
Getting back to TIPS: ten years is a long time. And, I kind of don't trust the definition of "inflation" to stay constant. Our leaders will move the goalposts as much as they feel they can get away with, not because it's in the public interest to have that changed.
With retirement 5-7 year out, I'd probably have maybe kind of 20% in a bond ladder. Or maybe 25%. Depends on how much cash/cash equivalents you have set aside for equity buying opportunities (which, in a post-paycheck market meltdown, becomes grocery-buying opportunities)
--sutton
iBonds another decent choice, although not as attractive as a couple of years ago. Unfortunately they're limited to $10/K per SSN per year, and I have no idea how you'd do it inside of a 401(K) or similar
