No. of Recommendations: 7
@UpNorthJoe wrote (among other well-reasoned points), "If interest rates on US T's have to rise to attract buyers, that burden could/would cause a chain of events that none of us really want to experience."
Joe, I rec'd your good post. Many people, including myself, are concerned about the dramatic rise in U.S. debt. The book, "This Time Is Different," describes how many nations in history failed after their debt exceeded 100% of GDP.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188Shttps://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870Bond traders in the free market have already forced a steeper Treasury yield curve.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.phpThe Federal Reserve bought many long-term Treasury and GSE bonds to repress yields. They tapered their bloated book to some degree but they could turn on a dime and do QE again.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCLPumping fiat money into the system increases asset prices (such as stocks and homes) if the money goes to financial institutions. Fiscal stimulus, which originates with Congress and goes into consumer pockets, causes consumer price inflation.
None of this is good for long-term stability. Like you, I don't know why our international suppliers sell their goods to us and then buy Treasuries with the trade surplus. Oh...yes, I do. They have huge populations and must keep them employed for political stability.
Wendy
