No. of Recommendations: 20
Even 60 Minutes had to swallow it and admit that a) yes, Iran has enough material for a number of bombs and b) they've been cheating and lying for 20 years about (which puts Paid to the absurd talking point that they only started things back up after Trump cancelled The Most Holy Obama's JCPOA deal).
No one denied that Iran has enough material for a number of bombs or that they've been lying about their nuclear program. The criticism of Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA is that it created a framework to catch them in their lies and enforce a commitment to remain below an energy-level enrichment ceiling. Which they did, until Trump cancelled the JCPOA.
1, literally hundreds of oil tankers are heading pell-mell across the Atlantic to dock in Texas and Louisiana. They're not going there for Spring Break.
I didn't miss that. They're going there to buy oil. The world oil market is global and fungible. Since the strait is closed, other countries have to take oil from us - which is why gas prices in the U.S. have risen to over $4.00 per gallon, even though we don't import much oil from the Middle East.
2, Iran has no Navy. No Air Force. And interestingly, doesn't seem to be using heavy weapons on anyone to "close" the strait. Even Bill had to admit that "gunboat" might just mean a couple of guys with AKs running their Mercury outboards at full throttle.
So what? They don't need any of that stuff to control the strait. The strait can be closed with attacks from the coastline, or gunboats (which is what the UK forces identified them as).
3, The ties to the Gulf States have never been stronger. You think we're not going to continue to have a large presence there? Or get financial help to build even more?
I thought that you said the whole point of this venture was that the U.S. would not have to devote as much of our attention and resources to the area, and could instead focus more on China. Obviously if we're going to have just as large a presence there as before, then that goal won't happen. And there's almost certainly going to be some very raw feelings among the Gulf States over the fact that we split open a hornet's nest of economic pain over our "friends" who were standing under the branch at the time, without consulting them or informing them.
And China's ties to Iran are going to be stronger after the war is over, and Iran's got more power over the strait now. We're not going to be financing and investing in the reconstruction of Iran - that'll all be China.
4, a "40 nation coalition led by the UK and France" is going to patrol the strait and keep it open. Have you no faith in the mighty Navies of NATO? Or maybe you'd like to agree with my assessment of their power projection capabilities now?
What do power projection capabilities have to do with it? The United States can't force open the strait - even though I think you would argue we have the greatest power projection capabilities on the planet. That's because all the power in the world can't prevent coastal attacks on merchant vessels in the strait - unless we move in with a massive ground invasion and seize the coast.
This is the continued folly of the invasion of Iran. We have known for decades and decades that there is no good military answer for their ability to close the strait, that "power projection capabilities" can't solve that problem. That's why prior Presidents had the wisdom and foresight not to invade Iran. For whatever reason, Trump decided to invade without having a solution to keep the strait open - whether because he believed that there would be a Venezuela-type result or mistakenly thought that taking out their Navy and Air Force mattered to control over the strait or whatever. But here we are....
So, no. The 40 nation coalition is unlikely to force open the strait if Iran wants to close it, for the same reason that the U.S. has failed to force open the strait after Iran decided to close it. Because conventional military power can't do that, absent a big old ground invasion.
