No. of Recommendations: 3
That's how these things work. The small, outgunned guerilla force engages in asymmetric warfare - which forces the larger invading country to expend vast amounts of resources (manpower, material, economic resources) without being able to actually "win" their strategic goals. And they do that until the domestic cost of maintaining that fight is too high. They choose to leave because the domestic political pressure forces them to do something they are not physically forced to do.
Yes. This is the textbook example of asymmetric warfare. A lot of times people draw the wrong conclusions from it, though.
Same thing here. Iran's going to throttle the strait and precipitate one of the worst energy crises in history, together with shortages in fertilizer and helium and other goods that have to go through the strait.
Hmm. You'd think that would be enough to motivate certain European countries to not want to be in a position where a collection of nutjobs can hold them hostage at whim, but maybe not. We're not talking about your father's Brits, Germans and French (actually here you'd have to go way back something like 5 generations to find some Napoleon-era French guys).
It's possible they never restart - but then again, this isn't the first time Iran's had to close down many of their wells, and they will likely close them down based upon their likely resilience. And then rotate among them. And if that doesn't work, then they'll have lost some of their wells.
And will that help or hurt their economy?
Doesn't mean we get what we want. It means we've hurt them, perhaps permanently, but if they still resist we still don't get what we want. What happens if they keep resisting?
I suppose they could all fish.
About 700 million barrels per day, as of last year.
I think your estimate is a bit high :)
What happens if they keep resisting?
Then domestic pressure on Trump in the form of the democrat party essentially rooting for an American humiliation grows. That's what the Iranians are counting on. Bush43 held firm; we'll see what Trump does. The democrats don't have unlimited cards to play, though.
