Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
 Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest
Search MI
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Post of the Week! | How To Invest
Search MI

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (17) |
Author: rayvt ✧🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 5498 
Subject: Re: Chart: timing with Nas100 RS screen
Date: 05/18/26 10:30 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 5
Am I reading the graph correctly? If your start was anytime other that ~2H00 to ~2H08, Untimed gives the better return?

So, basically, this would have helped one miss the dot com and financial crisis busts (which ain't nothing), but other than that, worse?

Yes.

People think the purpose of timing is to improve the return. When they find it does not, they say "timing the market does not work".

But that is NOT the purpose of timing.
Going back at least to the 2013 Mel Faber paper, the purpose of timing is to reduce the standard deviation (volatility) at the cost of reducing the overall return. The win is if timing reduces the stdev percentage-wise more than it reduces the return percentage-wise.

The other win is "avoiding the full brunt of a large decline."

2/1985-12/2025
Untimed:
CAGR      22.9%
Stdev     30.2%
MaxDD(12) -66%
Sortino   1.35

Timed (65 week SMA of SPX):
CAGR      22.6%
Stdev     26.1%
MaxDD(12) -33%
Sortino   1.63
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (17) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Ticker or Board Name Author

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds