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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺ SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: Jim's bottom detector
Date: 04/04/25 12:59 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 33
Did you run the bottom detector in the '08-'09, or '01 era? Curious if the major indicator fired then, and how "big" was the register.

Yes.
I've posted all my signals since then, though I guess most of those posts are gone with the wind.

The signals have generally been good since I created the model, the main flaw being that in serious "waterfall" panics it gives some too-early signals on the way down, like 2008-10-07. (even though things were indeed higher a year later)
I have made it a little stricter, trying to filter some of those out, but you start missing things.

There is certainly a whiff of panic in the air, but the signal is still pretty far from triggering. I don't think we're at capitulation. That takes a while.

Because of the clustering of signals, I tend to call it a "buy" on the first day after a stretch of signals that it *doesn't* trigger.
Consider this stretch of major bottom signals:
2022-09-23 major bottom signal triggered
2022-09-26 major bottom signal triggered
2022-09-27 Good day to buy?
2022-09-28
2022-09-29 major bottom signal triggered (a variant older version of the signal also triggered this day, not the others)
2022-09-30 Good day to buy if you missed the first one?

That stretch was the last time it triggered. Great buy signal if I do say so myself.

Jim
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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