Please be patient and understanding when interacting with others, and avoid getting frustrated or upset if someone does not respond to your posts or if a discussion does not go as you expected. Remember that everyone is entitled to express their own perspectives. Furthermore, even when you don't entirely agree, try to benefit in some way from it.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 1
I know a few here estimate Q2 quite well. I believe there's some bigger unknowns than usual (e.g., early Q GOOG buying? how much?), and the equity portfolio should provide a substantial tailwind this quarter in any event, but I was hoping some might be willing to share their best guesses.
NB: Pre-emptively, AI is not good at this. I tested and its all over the map, with obvious errors when pressed. I suppose the answer would be better if I guided it with all the relevant variables, but at that point I'd be able to do the work properly myself.
No. of Recommendations: 4
'I was hoping some might be willing to share their best guesses."
Until I see more data, my best guess is about 2.6% higher than the Mar 31 BV, or about $523K/A-share. This number is nothing more than a simple extrapolation of recent (5 year) BV/share, which has grown quite steadily over the last five years, and even over the last 25 years. It does not make any adjustments for possible better-than-average stock market returns, possible write-downs or possible buybacks. FWIW.
No. of Recommendations: 4
I estimate book value per B share at $350+. As of today $356, but saw a few good stock performances. Overall, I would go with $353 per B share at QE.
No. of Recommendations: 9
Overall, I would go with $353 per B share at QE.
Seems about right. My estimate came in at $353.58 with no guesses for underwriting profits or share repurchases. It's typically plus or minus a dollar or two.
Net income from operations less insurance around $6B.
Equity dividends after tax about $900M.
Return on cash after tax about $3B.
Equities increase after tax about $25B.
Jeff
Could also add something like $1.5B for underwriting profits maybe and get to an ending bv of $354.25?
I would say $352-$355 is a pretty high confidence interval.
