he/she ends up just over doubling their money ($617,545). That's better then not investing, but doesn't look that good to me.

So don't invest in the Nikkei then. I never did.

Arguing like this is pointless. With the full benefit of hindsight, bears can cherry pick any start date and end date to make their case. And bulls can do the exact same thing.

For example, I can cherry pick that David Gardner and the TMF Stock Advisor service selected Nvidia as a top pick way back in 2005 at a split adjusted price of - wait for it - $1.63. If you had followed that recommendation and bought $5,000 worth of NVDA, your investment would be worth $2.4 million today. But the bears will just tell me that yeah, but NVDA had several 50% drops along the way, and TMF had a bunch of other recommendations over the years which fell like a rock or went nowhere. Which is also true. Can't win these arguments, because both the bulls and bears are arguing from their emotional perspectives.

The important thing is that once you win the game, i.e., once you hit your financial independence/retirement number, that you need to reallocate your portfolio in a way that makes sense for you, and lets you sleep at night.