Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 4
Forecasts
* Revenue : $10.6B
* EPS : $0.93 / shar
As always margins will be closely examined...
BTW: DLTR reported decent earnings today; maybe a positive sign.
tecmo
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Results
Revenue : $10.65B
EPS : $1.28 / share
Guidance : $5.60 to $5.80 for the full year.
Stock is trading up to $120 per share, which would imply a PE of ~20 - I think I am going to unwind my position now.
I purchased 6 separate lots over the last 2 years
Lot 1 : $131.38 (Sep 2023)
Lot 2 : $117.37 (Sep 2023)
Lot 3 : $103.11 (Oct 2023)
Lot 4 : $116.23 (Jul 2024)
Lot 5 : $ 77.00 (Nov 2024)
Lot 6 : $ 71.08 (Jan 2025) -> Might hold this to Jan to get to Long Term holding rate
Overall I am up just over 12% - not great considering the overall market is well ahead of that - not all ideas are winners.
tecmo
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Jim's target when you bought in 9/2023 was $220
The price-to-sales ratio, or sales relative to share price, is approximately 0.65 - which is about what it was in September 2023... and I believe sales per share continues to grow.
Smufty
No. of Recommendations: 15
Jim's target when you bought in 9/2023 was $220
The price-to-sales ratio, or sales relative to share price, is approximately 0.65 - which is about what it was in September 2023... and I believe sales per share continues to grow.
Yeah, that was a bad call : )
It went up to about $167 in the six months after my bullish call around $116, then tanked by 100 bucks a share to more like $67. Oops.
Like many holders I've done nicely lately, especially today, after a long down stretch. Great in fact if you don't look at a chart longer than a year--they have outperformed the average US large cap by a wonderful amount since their relative-to-market bottom in mid January. About 70% advantage. I also added to the position at low prices, so it looks reasonable for me at the moment.
But I'm not selling yet.
The market price results with dollar stores are VERY much more volatile than their earnings, which in turn are more volatile than the true value. Their earnings tend to be weak in the early part of a recession cycle as their poorer customers run out of spare money, which we have just lived through. They then tend to pick up again (both business and price) later in the bear cycle as middle class folks start shopping there out of necessity. Today seems, on the surface of things, to be consistent with the transition between the two states.
Of course, it's not bullish to see what fraction of revenues come from SNAP, which is being cut. This time around may be a bit harsher. And they've cut labour costs to the bone and well beyond, so cyclically adjusted net margins may not be what they once were.
An blindly optimistic view? Historically they traded reliably at or over 1 times trailing sales per share, which might make a non-crazy new target. That's what, about $190 these days? Be of good cheer! And Zeus bless us, every one.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 3
Jim, unlike you, I sold my DG when the stock cratered because I lost confidence in the CEO, not the business model. Since then, I have continued to watch the stock and wonder if it was ever going to hit your price. It’s been fun to watch it come back, and I admire your conviction and patience. But I don’t see much change at the company, so I wonder why you held? Was it just a matter of valuation? Curious if you have an opinion of the CEO?
abromber
No. of Recommendations: 1
I sold 1/3 of my shares today - as I said, probably too early, but I feel fine with the decision.
tecmo
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No. of Recommendations: 4
I too sold about 15% of my position at around $125. The position size for this holding got a bit bigger than I wanted because I added to my position while it was on my way down. The sale now return me back to more of portfolio allocation that I like. I am tempted to sell out the entire position now that it is above $130 but that feels emotional / anchoring rather than entirely rationale. I should probably hold on to see if the business is capable of a full lift given past trends as Jim points out. I have a habit of both buying (when the stock drops, but before the bottom) and selling (when the stock rises, but before the top) sooner than I should. This might be one of those situations.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I have a habit of both buying (when the stock drops, but before the bottom) and selling (when the stock rises, but before the top) sooner than I should. This might be one of those situations.
Yes, I am usually to early to buy and sell as well. I need more patience.
In this case I sold and doubled down on some LULU with the proceeds. I still have enough DG to keep it interesting (for now).
tecmo
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No. of Recommendations: 5
buying too early and selling too soon is the achilles heel of overly rationale value investors. We can't imagine abandoning a stock out of negative emotion when its clearly undervalued and we can't imagine holding on when the stock price seems to overshoot intrinsic value. But the rest of world is happy to emotionally punish a stock for failing them and to hold on to ride the wave without regard.
Its our lot in life to miss out on the highest peaks and lowest valleys.
