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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: musselmant ✧☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: S&P500 strategy
Date: 08/06/26 8:28 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 9

I have tested a 1 and 2 stock strategy held monthly with .1 spreads, traded the 2nd-to-last day of the month at the close based on the 3rd-to last day's data. Plus a 5-stock strategy.
You get similar results using all 500 S&P500 stocks as the first step, but googlesheets freezes at about the 108 stock mark, so I added a 2nd step to reduce how many stocks googlesheets would have to look up; you then have to paste the symbols for the second step, from another source (e.g. finviz is free).

1 stock: S&P500 Top 20 by 6-month return then → SMA50/180 Top 2 then→ ADV40 #1
"Timed" means my SPY>325day SMA cutoff that requires this or go to cash on the usual trade day.

2 stocks: S&P500 Top 20 by 6-month return then→ SMA50/180 Top 2

5 stocks: S&P500 Top 80 by (6m price change % + (0.5 × 12m price change %)) then → SMA30/180 Top 50 then→ ADV200 Top 5

I didn't test all possible RS lookbacks; 6 month and 1 year are commonly reported so you can find them without needing googlesheets and then paste the symbols into googlesheets to calculate the remaining steps.

2000+ results
Strategy Timing CAGR MDD Sharpe
SP1, 1 stock Untimed 35.30% −74.35% 0.800
SP1, 1 stock SPY-325 30.31% −58.38% 0.752
SP2, 2 stocks Untimed 25.46% −47.13% 0.740
SP2, 2 stocks SPY-325 21.34% −50.64% 0.688
SP5, 5 stocks Untimed 24.92% −53.68% 0.931
SP5, 5 stocks SPY-325 23.08% −31.09% 0.936

The last completed return is from the May 27, 2026 signal through the June 26, 2026 signal.
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This community has written 6,224 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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