*                         3/11     3/18     3/25     4/1/24
S&P 500 Index             5123.69  5117.09  5235.15  5254.35
Trailing 12 month PE      26.46    26.49    27.10    27.24
Trail Earnings yield      3.78%    3.78%    3.69%    3.67%
Forward 12 month PE       22.89    22.68    23.20    23.24
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.37%    4.41%    4.31%    4.30%
90 day tbill yield        5.46     5.48     5.46     5.46
10 year tbond yield       4.09%    4.31%    4.22%    4.20%
Arezi Ratio               1.44     1.45     1.48     1.49
Fed Ratio                 0.94     0.98     0.98     0.98

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 46%
stocks, 54% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 26%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 75%.

Elan

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