Post #2707 by Timer321 on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15...

Foreclosures surge 20%
https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/what-to-...

Car repossessions are up 43%.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/restaurant-chains-...

Some restaurant chains are sounding the alarm about consumers
Industry warnings come as inflation worsens and hiring wanes.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/consumer-senti...

Consumer sentiment slides to near-lowest level on record

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-us-long-ter...

Average US long-term mortgage rate rises to 6.26%, the third straight increase

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1QZ0a...

The 7 parts of the US economy that are already in a recession

When describing the health of the US economy, there is a temptation among economists, market analysts, and politicians to argue that the only true picture of our current situation is a sweeping portrait — only by looking at the broadest of aggregate statistics can you determine the state of play, they argue. But the wide view can ignore important developments unfolding under the surface.

Right now, the economy seems OK on the surface. GDP growth has been running north of 3% for the last two quarters. In the labor market, the boilerplate appears to be that conditions are gradually cooling, but nothing more, nothing less

Major employers in industries like homebuilding and restaurants are looking shaky, and they offer ominous signs about the direction of the overall economy.

Housing construction & inventory:
<img src="https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/origi..." alt="Small multiple line chart"/>

restaurant sector value added and employment:
<img src="https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/origi..." alt="Line chart"/>

In a genuine downturn, the consensus typically assumes a gradual, linear increase in unemployment, similar to the slow, steady grind we are currently experiencing. In reality, however, the risk is nonlinear. When things truly turn south, it usually comes as an abrupt shift that results in a negative self-reinforcing feedback loop.

there are industries with a smaller employment footprint that also appear to be softening:

Freight: There are not as many goods moving around the country. Ship counts from Asia to the US are down roughly 30% from last year. Railcar loadings are down roughly 6% against last year. The trucking industry also continues to see shrinking capacity.

Mining: Crude oil prices are somewhat below the level needed to profitably invest in new drilling wells, so energy companies are unlikely to hire new staff in this area.<?I>

Higher education: Declining enrollment, budget cuts, and reduced federal research funding are taxing the higher education sector. Not surprisingly, more colleges and universities are turning to staffing cuts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/private-payroll-lo...

Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, ADP said Tuesday.

Black Friday is around the corner; if those sales tank methinks we are in a recession-declared or not.

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One of my managers has been telling me he does not know the yoy sales numbers because Thanksgiving is on a different day this year. I looked it up. Thanksgiving was on the 28th last year and the 27th this year. That surprised him.

We used to love our growth numbers.

Now we don't talk so loud. Now we don't walk so proud.

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