Has anyone calculated the compounded annual return for Berkshire from here under the following cannibal conditions?

Exit at a Price to Book value at the current market ratio in year 5. A reasonable valuation.

All excess capital, defined as cash in excess of insurance float, plus annual free cashflow deployed into share buybacks over a period of 5 years at 1.4 price to book ratio (or whatever management considers an intelligent discount to intrinsic value.) would require a bit of luck but and intelligent capital allocation but not a lot.

No major acquisitions, or equity investments.

Maintenance capex only.

Existing businesses grow at the level of the US economy. Not a huge hurdle.

Equity investments grow in market value in line with the US economy. Again not a huge hurdle.

My unreliable AI assistant tells me it would be around 9% CAGR. That seems a bit high intuitively.

Although, in this scenario the buy backs at even a small discount probably add up to something significant.

5 years of FCF plus current excess cash would dramatically increase remaining shareholder slice of the pizza.

Given the foundation selling pressure; loss of Buffett and Munger magic narrative; tax efficiency; general market valuation risk; harder and for Greg Abel to remain over capitalised versus Buffett and perhaps rational - it does sound like a reasonable base probability outcome.

What’s your 5 year CAGR in this cannibal scenario?

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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