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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: mungofitch SILVER
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Number: of 1102 
Subject: Re: BFH - why so unloved?
Date: 06/07/26 6:06 PM
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Shouldn't this be one of those cases where you buy something really cheap and good things happen eventually? I realize that the long term chart would not really support this hypothesis, which I suppose is the market telling me that there is something wrong with my thinking.

(that was 2.6 years ago).

It looks like your thinking was considerably better than what the market seemed to be saying.

Since that post,
Average S&P 500 stock total return: 62%, or 20.3%/year CAGR
S&P 500 total return: 85%, or 26.7%/year CAGR
BFH total return: 257%, or 62.9%/year CAGR

It's not a sudden pop. Ignoring squiggles, it seems to have been chugging higher faster than the market pretty steadily.

Earnings per share bounce up and down a bit but haven't really changed, just the market multiples. P/E up from around 3 to around 7.5. Such exuberance!

Possible moral of the story: at entry valuations that low, they just have to stay in business and not shrink. Moonshot profits aren't needed.

Jim
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