No. of Recommendations: 11
So is the threat of war between individual European states as much of a risk as it was 80+ years ago? I suspect it is not. There are more ties keeping the nations of Europe together - political, economic, and social - than there have ever been in history.
As much? No, not in the very short run.
But it's still a pretty considerable risk. There are lots of ties among the nations of Europe, it's true. But the risk isn't an "all against all" kind of conflict. Rather, it's that the Continent ends up doing what it used to do - seeing different countries ally with other countries in blocs and groups in an effort to seek power, and to balance power against potential military risks.
So if you asked me what one scenario might look like in a short time frame, here's a plausible one:
1) Over the next several years, various different countries in Europe follow Hungary and Poland's lead in electing right-wing nationalist leaders. Those countries (along with like Belgium, Croatia, Finland, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Sweden) end up being joined by at least one right-wing nationalist government among the major powers: say, an unexpected success in France or Germany.
2) The division of countries into a growing right-wing faction and waning center-left faction in European governmental institutions causes both tensions within those organizations as the two groups jockey for power on issues where they differ (immigration, responses to right-wing governments abroad, economic policy). Those tensions also lead those nations to form bonds outside the formal European system. You re-create the structure of two or more "camps" within Europe that are allied within the groups, and hostile to the other group(s).
3) Some error, mistake, or minor conflict ends up escalating into an actual military clash between NATO members. Say, between Turkey and Greece (who both maintain big armed forces because of mistrust of each other). Or the Balkans - it's always the Balkans. Both countries claim they were attacked by the other, both invoke NATO's obligation for others to defend against the attacking country, and the two camps start sending troops to the clashing countries, and you end up with some event getting way out of hand.
Of course, there's the longer term risk as well - that the increased militarization of Europe starts to erode all those ties you mention. Their geopolitical risk has contributed in no small part to the "hang together or we'll hang separately" attitude towards military matters - they need NATO because that's the vehicle that brings in US military power. If the US is no longer a major presence in Europe's defense planning, then that unity becomes less important for national security. Who knows what happens if that timber is removed from the support? It doesn't take too many Brexits driven by domestic politics to undermine the European project, and there's more than a few anti-immigration nationalist groups that would love to light a match under the EU....
