No. of Recommendations: 14
Just wondering about the paradox of bubbles.
On the one hand, Y'all talk about the dot com bubble as if everyone who ever invested in tech lost at least all their gains if not more. But me and (i'd estimate) a few thousand Qualcomm employees walked away with million(s) $ EACH, which to the best of my observation changed our circumstances permananently. (I became wealthier through the "bubble" and have never returned to the lower level). My uncle made millions, he bought MSFT and kept it. When I started working at Qualcomm he bought QCOM and kept it. Sure, his "winnings" peaked in early 2000 on the QCOM, but even at its maximum retrenchment, it was still many multiples of what it had been worth in 97, 98 or so.
Another guy worked for apple, kept his ESPP stock, and had millions of $s for tens of years. He eventually traded it mostly into Tesla and had millions from that, but that roller coaster certainly went in both directions while he was on it.
Obviously in a some very straightforward way, there are a BUNCH of stocks that seemed like the obvious choices in the 80s or 90s that if you just effing bought them and just effing kept them you have permanent wealth. My mistake wasn't buying AAPL before Jobs left and it almost went bankrupt, it was selling it. My mistake in TSLA wasn't buying it in the early 2020s, it was selling it. My lack of mistake in QCOM wasn't lovingly curating my options grants and ESPP stock, it was NOT selling them.
So what is the real story with these bubbles? Has somebody attempted to understand, how many people made money AND KEPT IT? And perhaps what they did that was different from the people who lost everything?
At the moment I find it doubtful you can lose money on the 10 year time scale by owning NVDA, OpenAI, Google, or likely even TSLA. Just like if you bought and the big techs in the 80s and 90s, AND YOU HELD ON TO THEM, you are still a lot better off.
I think losing money in tech booms is the subtext. I think making money in tech booms is much closer to most "reasonable" people's experience. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have lived a nice life for 1/4 century fundamentally rooted in my winnings from the .com "bubble". And I think I am on my way to doing even better with the AI bubble.
I just wanted to bring up this other thing which MIGHT be obvious, but nobody else is talking about.
R:)
