No. of Recommendations: 19
Correction vs. bear market
Maybe this is a better envisioning of a market top than "tops are rounded" and trying to guess if we are halfway through the rounded top.
"Bull markets, with only the rarest of exceptions that don't really matter, end with a whimper, not with a bang. They roll over slowly at first, descend gently in their early days --- with volatility, of course.
And the first roughly one third of the drop, takes up two thirds of the total length in time of the bear market, and the last one third of the time makes up about two thirds of the percentage drop. They start gently.
But a correction is unlike that. Corrections come straight off the top, and anything that comes straight off the top you do not sell out on.
Bear markets start with a whimper, not with a bang; corrections start with a bang."The 2nd paragraph above is what is meant by "you have plenty of time to get out". It's not that market tops are rounded, it's that bear markets start off slowly.
Looking at the 3 or 6 month chart of the S&P500, that sure looks like it "came straight off the top" from 2/19/2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJtVvCDBKXw 