No. of Recommendations: 5
price matters. As the price of something rises, the risk rises and the upside shrinks. The margin of safety erodes.
I am conflicted over which wise uncle to heed. WEB somewhere pointed out that if you have won the game you shouldn't keep playing. Charlie told me if I'm not ready to ride out a 50% decline I should rot in hell (actually he just said expect mediocre returns).
I've reached a point where I can cruise on in with fixed income investments and be fine. Maybe I should stop playing the riskier game. I've done that with the tax free IRA money. The capital gains tax keeps me from getting out of most of my BRK, even though a 50% cut would hurt. The interesting thing is that the more the price runs up, the less ominous is the 50% cut. As Jim points out, it is more likely starting from a high price, but the half number is not so bad now and I worry less about a meltdown.
I feel the magnificent seven may not quite "have no clothes" but they may be lightly dressed if a blizzard arrives. Hopefully BRK is more robust, but of course it would drop with the broader market. A big drop from current numbers would be a bummer, but I'll survive. Guess I'll do nothing for now.
