Post #115 by lizgdal on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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Bear markets are often accompanied by recessions. January 3, 2022 was the beginning of a Bear market. A recession is expected by many, but has not been sighted yet.

Nine of the last eleven recessions started during a Bear market. (Stock market tops did not lead the 1953 and 1960 recessions. The 1961, 1966, 1987 market tops did not lead recessions.) For these nine events, the median time between the stock market top and the recession start was 8 months (range 0 to 40 months). The median time between the recession start and the market bottom was 5 months (range 1 to 19 months).

  SP500     recession     SP500     recession    Bear   recession  Top to    Start    Bottom
    top       start       bottom        end     length    length   Start   to Bottom  to End
7/12/1957   8/15/1957   10/22/1957  4/15/1958     3         8        1         2        6
11/29/1968  12/15/1969  5/26/1970   11/15/1970    18        11       13        5        6
1/11/1973   11/15/1973  10/3/1974   3/15/1975     21        16       10        11       5
9/21/1976   1/15/1980   3/27/1980   7/15/1980     42        6        40        2        4
11/28/1980  7/15/1981   8/12/1982   11/15/1982    20        16       8         13       3
 6/4/1990   7/15/1990   10/11/1990  3/15/1991     4         8        1         3        5
3/24/2000   3/15/2001   10/9/2002   11/15/2001    31        8        12        19       -11
10/9/2007   12/15/2007   3/9/2009   6/15/2009     17        18       2         15       3
2/14/2020   2/15/2020   3/23/2020   4/15/2020     1         2        0         1        1
                                      median      18        8        8         5        4
                                                months    months   months    months   months

links...
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/BA_Sto...
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...

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