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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺ SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 1198 
Subject: FKA: GOOGL
Date: 08/05/24 4:16 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 15
I don't think Alphabet is cheap at today's price of $160.

But, I think it has fallen enough that it isn't overvalued, if you believe in the business model for a while yet as I do. I could live with this entry, though of course I'd like to do better.

I wrote a few puts today, which were unusually remunerative given the slight panic in the market. If they're assigned, I figure I'll just keep the stock. I have a core long term position that makes me happy, but it isn't as big as I wish. I think the net entry price on this new position (strike minus premium) may get me a double digit return in the next coupla/few years. It works out to almost exactly 17 times consensus earnings for next year, which I think is pretty good for this firm. Numbers like 25 seem to be more common.

If they aren't assigned, it's a 22.1%/year rate of return on the incremental cash committed, in addition to the 4.9%/year I'm already earning on that same cash, total 27%/year rate till around year end.

As a bonus, since I don't know which outcome I'll get, there is an extra entertainment value to the position.

Jim
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This community has written 1,188 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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