No. of Recommendations: 17
A couple of thoughts.
It has always seemed to me that the share price of the company reflects the fandom quotient of the buyers of the stock rather more than anything to do with the underlying business. Consequently I have stayed away. No amount of business analysis will tell you what the stock price will do next, and of course it won't be cheap so long as there are rabid fans.
Separately, I have a slight concern. There is a rule of thumb in luxury goods: never overproduce. If you bump up production you will juice the earnings an AMAZING amount...for a few years. Then the brand will be debased, and you will find yourself in the Pierre Cardin category.
Hermes understands this. For a long time Ferrari did too, vowing *never* to produce more than (IIRC) 3000 cars a year.
Then they went public. Now you can buy Ferrari branded baby buggies and a thousand other things that haven't earned the prancing horse that's stuck on them. They sold 13663 cars last year. So now that the brand management is into the "strip mining" phase--a logo that makes you think of baby buggies, not sports cars--I wonder how the brand's future will hold up. Less respect for sure, but how much less?
All that being said, I rather like the cars, if not the stock. Despite the fact that people will generally think you're a douche if you drive one, they are actually extremely good cars, since the 360 Modena. They have a truly amazing ability to square the circle: amazingly competent and exciting to drive, but at the same time also surprisingly easy to drive and comfortable.
Jim
