A message board, a digital mine, where Shrewds gather, for fortune design.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 5
I am wondering how long this can last? I know from before that it can last much longer than I think is possible. I know from experience that I always sell too early when it's going up. But it's really hard to not sell stocks like especially Meta right now. How much higher can it go? Much, I know - although it doesn't make sense to me. "Momentum" - which never made sense to me, as it's just a self-reinforcing feedback loop, not based on any rational fact.
What do you others do?
No. of Recommendations: 11
Why?
If you are living on your investments and want to keep the Vermeer a little longer, then sure, sell. Over on the Mech Inv board they talk about dying bull euphoria as a signal that we are no longer in an obvious bull market. If you think you can repurchase your shares at a better price then you have to make two decisions, first, when to sell, and second, when to rebuy. I'm terrible at the second and repurchase too soon. Someone somewhere on the intertubes stated that he didn't sell until he had something else that he liked better. Other than the occasional Vermeer.
The US economy looks pretty good (for now), but selling on perceived entry into a recession is also a challenge as recessions are always called in retrospect by folks much wiser than I. There is a tendency to compete with others on these boards (I bot acme widgets at a much lower price than u) and it leads to madness (and daytrading, which is the same thing). You may be shocked to discover that not everyone on these boards is telling the truth. Stay focused on your long-term goals.
Rgds,
HH/Sean
No. of Recommendations: 9
Why?...
A very much to-the-point question.
I think that if one is going to lighten up into exuberance (certainly not a necessity), the main thing to look at is whether you own some things that you yourself think are overvalued.
Either not really worth a lot, or worth so much less than the current quote that you have no confident prospect of an acceptable return if you hold for several years and valuations fall back to what you think is justifiable.
There are quite a few things that seem richly valued these days, but there are certainly widely varying degrees of exuberance and optimism.
I think Alphabet and Coke are currently trading at very similar multiples of earnings, for example. Might make a good long/short pair trade : )
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 3
Thanks for reminding me on DBE! Right, with the S&P climbing from new high to new high and DBE far from signaling, it might be the most stupid thing to even partly sell now. Maybe for the first time in my investing life I should sit it out to feel uncomfortable while everything is rising and rising and ....
You may be shocked to discover that not everyone on these boards is telling the truth.
I think more positive. With Divi I had my doubts as nobody ever got a straight answer from him to a direct question. But other than him I do believe what the people are posting here. Maybe sometimes a "suitable" start/end date for reporting something is chosen or one conveniently forgets the rather unpleasant stories (not everybody names his company after his greatest mistake to never forget it), but that's just a little all too human bending the truth or telling only half of it 😉
No. of Recommendations: 0
"I think Alphabet and Coke are currently trading at very similar multiples of earnings, for example.
Might make a good long/short pair trade : )"
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OR........one could go check this current auction market for another addition to the portfolio collection ,
https://www.mutualart.com/Artist/Jan-Vermeer/25CA0........looks like the risk/return here is as bad as it is on Wall St!
ciao
No. of Recommendations: 0
