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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: rrr12345 ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 22354 
Subject: Re: S&P overvaluation
Date: 09/28/25 2:24 AM
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GMO Funds forecast a real, annualized return over the next seven years (the period that they consider to be the most predictable) for US large cap stocks of -5.7% to -2.7% (depending on interest rates).

gmo.com: Investment and Asset Management | Americas

Whatever the best forecast is, it's not likely to be high, or even average.

Furthermore, corrections are usually sharpest in the first year or two, so whether the real, 7-year return is -5.7% (GMO) or the nominal, 12-year return is -6% (Hussman), the 1-year or 2-year or 3-year return can be expected to be lower than the 7-year or 12-year annualized return. My wild guess would be that we will see a significant correction (say, 30% or more) within the next one to three years for the S&P, and an annualized return over the next 7-12 years for the S&P that is lower than T-Bills.

rrr12345
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This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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