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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: FlyingCircus ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Market / GTAA Indicators end July '24
Date: 07/31/24 11:47 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 8
1.) GTAA status
2.) Market trend/breadth indicators
3.) Blurb

Asset Class Signal Top6 Rank 12MHI?
US LC IN X 6 OK
US LC Growth IN X 5 CASH (indicating it's < -5% to its 12m high)
US LC Momentum IN 7
US SC IN X 2 OK
US SC Mom./Gro IN X 1
For. Developed IN 10 OK
For. Dev. SC IN 9
Emerging IN 11
Real Estate IN X 4 OK
Foreign RE IN 12
Total Bond IN 14
Blend CEFS IN X 3
10Y US Gov IN 14
Other hi yield IN 12
Preferred IN 16
Cash/ST 17

US Small Caps have shot to the top of the rankings since 7/11 in "the rotation heard round the world". Although the seasonal timing is not favorable, I've pushed my allocation to small caps up to @20% and cut my allocation to large caps/large cap growth-momentum in half, for the upcoming month. I've learned not to cut large caps out completely unless the timing signals are full bear.

Market Trend Indicators (as of 7/26)
		                             BEARS/TOP	BULLS   CHANGED
Intermediate-Term
BearCatcher Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows Bull 5/30/24
BearCatcher SMA Slope, S&P 500 Bull 11/10/23
BearCatcher Dying Bullish Euphoria(99D) Bull 12/14/23
BC Summary The Key 0 3
Momentum, Int # 26 week highs
Momentum, Int DMI Bull 7/26/24
Momentum, Int 10/50 Crossover Bull 7/11/24
Momentum, Int PPO Weekly Bear 7/19
Momentum, Int 26W / 52W Bull 11/10/23
Breadth, mt PAMA Naz 50 Bull 7/12
Breadth, mt Breadth Confirms BULL 6/28
Breadth, mt Naz Bullish % Bull 7/12
Breadth, mt S&P PAMA 200 (>55%) Bull 7/11/24
Breadth Thrust Breadth Thrust
Correction Mode >7% off last peak Bull 5/10/24
Timing, Seasonal MACD on RUT Bear 4/26/24
Interest Rates Corporate Bond Index Bull 7/12/24

Short Term Top Warning 3 (moderate)
Momentum, ST PPO Daily Bear 7/19/24
Breadth, st SP600 PAMA20 7/12
Breadth, st PAMA5D %OFF 21dh Bear 7/26/24
Top, short term PAMA Divergence Highs 6/5/24
Top PAA Count 7/19/24
Top Recent Simple Top 7/9/24
Top Primary-Tech Divergence
Bottom Extreme PAMA low Off -

blank means neutral

RESULTS
- .8% for month vs .9% 60/40
- 6.9% YTD vs 7.2% 60/40
- best: RE 4.9%; worst EM -2%

Port now also contains a healthy allocation to bond-ish CEFS with high yields, managed by PIMCO.

FC
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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