No. of Recommendations: 19
In case anybody is interested, here are my recent quarterly figures from my "two and a half column" method. These are not intended to be the value of a share, merely some metric that rises at the same rate as the value of a share. Think of it as "true value times a single unknown constant". Inflation adjusted.
2020 Q4 519623
2021 Q1 549008
2021 Q2 590766
2021 Q3 610437
2021 Q4 611747
2022 Q1 618494
2022 Q2 591307
2022 Q3 575216
2022 Q4 598024
2023 Q1 572430
2023 Q2 589515
2023 Q3 562018
2023 Q4 592267
2024 Q1 604410
2024 Q2 616019
2024 Q3 639003
2024 Q4 645515
2025 Q1 646639
2025 Q2 664528
2025 Q3 685793
2025 Q4 687697
Quick summary of the method:
* Investments and cash per share at market value, but each stock holding capped to 21 times look-through earnings. Mainly, the Apple position gets tracked based on earnings progress, not price progress.
* Add 15 times net income per share for "steady things": operating subs, rails, utilities, equity method holdings, and a cyclically adjusted estimate of underwriting profit.
* Subtract 30% of float per share as a rough estimate of the overall long run drag on portfolio returns from always having to hold a lot of cash. Not the same as assuming 30% of float will be in cash.
* The occasional adjustment. For example, this year I put in an estimate of a conservative but "normal" year of earnings for KHC, as 2025 had only three quarters of income due to the new reporting lag.
Jim
