You might feel that leverage speeds up compounding. The problem is that leverage is more like compounding's hidden enemy: One million times zero equals zero.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 2
The shutdown is over the issue of extending the enhanced premium tax credits, yes?
https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-market...Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of this year. Enhanced premium tax credits were introduced in 2021 and later extended through the end of 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act. The enhanced tax credits both increased the amount of financial assistance already eligible ACA Marketplace enrollees received as well as made middle-income enrollees with income above 400% of federal poverty guidelines newly eligible for premium tax credits.The Democrats used budget reconciliation to pass them in 2021 and extend them in 2022 (to 2025) since no Republicans supported them.
Why would they expect Republicans to support them now? Can't take away a benefit once it's given?
The enhanced premium tax credits are nice for those of us who get them, but they add to the debt and do nothing to help overall healthcare costs.
Good piece here:
https://www.progressivepolicy.org/a-pragmatic-path...Instead of threatening to shut down the government over an outdated pandemic-era program, Democrats should be pressuring Republicans to meet them at a pragmatic middle-ground — one that permanently corrects the structural flaws of the original ACA in a fiscally responsible way. Doing so would signal to the American people that Democrats are serious about cutting medical costs rather than simply increasing government spending. PPI’s fix offers a balanced path forward: scale back the costly and regressive pandemic PTC expansion, smooth the benefit cliff, and pair any new spending with meaningful savings from reducing health-care costs. This combination of targeted assistance and real cost control would deliver more lasting affordability than another costly extension of overpriced subsidies.
No. of Recommendations: 3
The problem with the Democrats negotiating with the Republicans is that it is like Charlie Brown, as played by Jefferies and Schumer, negotiating with Lucy, as played by Trump et al, over how she will hold the football. It doesn't matter what is agreed to Lucy will jerk the ball away at the last moment.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Schumer in March:
“Under a shutdown, the Trump administration would have wide-ranging authority to deem whole agencies, programs and personnel nonessential, furloughing staff members with no promise they would ever be rehired.”
Still true. This shutdown is a Democrat mistake.
No. of Recommendations: 25
Senate Democrats say they want the permanent extension of expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies,
a reversal of the Medicaid cuts enacted under Trump's BB-Bill, and new limits on the president's authority to reduce federal spending.
But Trump says what they really want is to fund sex change operations for illegal immigrants.
For busy voters, it can be hard to know who to trust.
No. of Recommendations: 2
For busy voters, it can be hard to know who to trust.
You absolutely mean that. Sure. LOL
In a pig's eye, it is hard to know who to trust.
No. of Recommendations: 6
This shutdown is a Democrat mistake.
Trump is still a bully. The last thing that should happen is letting the bully get their way. Being a bully has worked in the past for him, so he continues that negative behavior. World leaders have figured it out, and I think the dems have as well.
Alan
No. of Recommendations: 4
This isn't a "Healthcare Shutdown". This is a "Show the base I'm still relevant so AOC doesn't primary me" stand by Chuck Schumer. Nothing more.
democrats in the past have always said, "Vote for a clean CR and let's talk" and yet this time they...blocked clean CRs from passing.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Senate Democrats say they want the permanent extension of expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies,
a reversal of the Medicaid cuts enacted under Trump's BB-Bill, and new limits on the president's authority to reduce federal spending.
Sure. I'd like all that too. They won't get it, not this way. They're playing into Trump's hand. Do I need to repeat what Schumer said only six months ago?
For busy voters, it can be hard to know who to trust.
Whatever. The Dems lied to us about Biden - he wasn't all there mentally. They lied to us about the border - they could and DID shut it down when it became too much of a political liability (too late, as it turned out).
Obviously, I don't trust ANY current Republican. I have only ever voted and sent money to Democrats. Now I don't trust most of them, either.
No. of Recommendations: 6
democrats in the past have always said, "Vote for a clean CR and let's talk" and yet this time they...blocked clean CRs from passing.
Past CRs had funding for healthcare.
This CR does not.
That’s a significant difference in case you weren’t aware.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Past CRs had funding for healthcare.
This CR does not.
That’s a significant difference in case you weren’t aware.
This CR does because it extends the budget stuff passed last year. The OBBB changes don't take place for a while yet.
No. of Recommendations: 2
But Trump says what they really want is to fund sex change operations for illegal immigrants.
Melanie is the definition of in illegal immigrant. She got a visa under pretense.
No. of Recommendations: 3
This isn't a "Healthcare Shutdown". This is a "Show the base I'm still relevant so AOC doesn't primary me" stand by Chuck Schumer. Nothing more. - Dope<?I>
--------------------
It also could be, "Trump is for it, therefore I oppose it with every fiber of my being. What was it again?"
No. of Recommendations: 0
The Shutdown Is Here. Will Democrats Be Blamed for It?
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/10/govern...Under the rule of thumb that the party making the policy demand lose a shutdown fight, then, it’s only a matter of time before Democrats yield. Republicans need only watch them squirm.
...
So what’s the endgame here? If the science of past shutdowns is any indication, Democrats will hold out just long enough to release the pressure coming from their base, then find a way to cave with dignity. If the public figures that Trump and Republicans have shut the government down as usual, negotiations over health care subsidies could commence.
I didn't used to pay much attention to politics. That changed when the Republicans did that stupid, stupid shutdown over Obamacare. I became a solid Democrat supporter right then. I remained one right up until that disastrous debate performance, when we knew with absolute certainty they had been lying to us. I still contributed to and voted for Kamala, her being the best choice of the two, obviously.
Now they're the ones doing a stupid, stupid shutdown.
No. of Recommendations: 12
No. of Recommendations: 1
Whatever. The Dems lied to us about Biden - he wasn't all there mentally.
The message I took away was - the Dems didn't fully understand either until Biden "shat the bed" at the debates, and the financiers said, no they wouldn't back Biden.
They lied to us about the border - they could and DID shut it down when it became too much of a political liability (too late, as it turned out).
They didn't lie about the border. There were still 10 flights a day coming in with immigrants from 4 different countries, but the border was minimal. Trump shut down the plane flights and made it less than minimal coming across the border.
Did you miss the financiers saying NO, and that there were ~10 flights coming in a day?
No. of Recommendations: 0
“I'll repeat my self. It is the Republican's shutdown.”
You understand the “need” for 60 votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill, yes?
We really don’t want to cross that bridge.
Listened to a couple of pods on my bike ride this afternoon. Schumer says they’ve been preparing for this for six months, they have a plan. I hope so. I hope it works out. I don’t like the method, though. Shutting down the government should be the very, very last resort.
No. of Recommendations: 9
You understand the “need” for 60 votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill, yes?
Yeah, but the republicans don't need 60 votes. Just like they did two weeks ago to force through 40+ nominees of Trump, they can override the filibuster and pass the CR. The fact that they won't do that means they don't really want to keep the gov't open. QED.
Queue Albaby in 3..2..1.
No. of Recommendations: 0
“The message I took away was - the Dems didn't fully understand either until Biden "shat the bed" at the debates, and the financiers said, no they wouldn't back Biden.”
Read ‘Original Sin’. They knew, or at least very strongly suspected all wasn’t well. They kept it quiet.
I wasn’t going to give the Biden campaign any more money, either, after that.
I defended Biden many times to friends. They made a fool of me.
“They didn’t lie about the border”.
“Nothing we can do” seemed to be the response as many millions of immigrants came across the border from 2021 to 2023. Then, somehow, in June of 2024, the Biden admin issued an EO and effectively shut it down. Or reduced it to a trickle.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/04/biden-bor...
No. of Recommendations: 0
“Yeah, but the republicans don't need 60 votes. Just like they did two weeks ago to force through 40+ nominees of Trump, they can override the filibuster and pass the CR. The fact that they won't do that means they don't really want to keep the gov't open. QED.
Queue Albaby in 3..2..1.”
I’d like to read Albaby’s response, too.
Didn’t the Dems wait for 60 votes the times the Republicans shut it down (Obabamcare, border wall, etc)?
And I think the Republicans are loving this. But Schumer says he has a plan, so I guess we are good.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I’d like to read Albaby’s response, too.
Didn’t the Dems wait for 60 votes the times the Republicans shut it down (Obabamcare, border wall, etc)?
And I think the Republicans are loving this. But Schumer says he has a plan, so I guess we are good.
I wouldn't put money on Schumer's plans. I predict he will cave in a week or three, or else a few more dems will get cold feet and change their votes because of constituent outrage.
As for using the "nuclear option" to override the 60 vote filibuster, I suspect that using it to pass a budget is somehow fundamentally worse than using it to force through nominees. But I don't know why.
No. of Recommendations: 6
AdrianC: You understand the “need” for 60 votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill, yes?
And you understand that reaching 60 votes requires compromise, yet the republicans said their funding bill is non-negotiable.
No. of Recommendations: 2
It is the Republican's shutdown.
Thanks for that Puck. :)
No. of Recommendations: 0
I predict he will cave in a week or three, or else a few more dems will get cold feet and change their votes because of constituent outrage.
And if the regime refuses to take "yes" for an answer? Then they can keep shutting down government programs they don't like, and keep blaming the Dems.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 4
"Then they can keep shutting down government programs they don't like, and keep blaming the Dems."
LoL, Trump blames absolutely everything on the Dem's, anyways.
It is time to call Trump's bluff. Dem's better get their attack message in gear, but
even if they keep playing like Little Lord Fauntleroy, TRUMP/MAGA is walking a
tightrope. I hope the shutdown continues into the ACA healthplan selection time.
I'm reading that subsidies for lower and middle income Americans will be up 50% when
the OBBB wipes out the subsidy.
This is like a poker game. And people are going to feel some financial pain, so
call Trump's bluff. Let it drag on, and on, and on.
But we all seem to be forgetting TACO. Trump said he held all of the cards in the tariff
fiasco's he originated. He lied. Let's see how this hand plays out.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I'm reading that subsidies for lower and middle income Americans will be up 50% when
the OBBB wipes out the subsidy.
As noted before, math is on Lord Trump's side. Most people have insurance from an employer, or Medicare. Worst case scenario, if everyone on an ACA plan was hurt, bad, that is still only 24M. The other 300M would said "so?", because they don't have a dog in that fight.
Steve...HBTT
No. of Recommendations: 0
And you understand that reaching 60 votes requires compromise, yet the republicans said their funding bill is non-negotiable.
Sure. The Republicans are despicable, spineless liars with zero integrity. It is known.
And they're holding all the good cards, unfortunately.
But Schumer has been preparing, and he has a plan. Not sure what it is. Has anyone heard?
No. of Recommendations: 2
It is time to call Trump's bluff. Dem's better get their attack message in gear, but
even if they keep playing like Little Lord Fauntleroy, TRUMP/MAGA is walking a
tightrope. I hope the shutdown continues into the ACA healthplan selection time.
I'm reading that subsidies for lower and middle income Americans will be up 50% when
the OBBB wipes out the subsidy.
This is like a poker game. And people are going to feel some financial pain, so
call Trump's bluff. Let it drag on, and on, and on.It's complicated, the effects are of letting the enhanced subsidies expire (that the Democrats passed in 2022 with an expiry date, due to, you know, the 60 vote threshold).
ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire
https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/aca-market...Example: family of 4 making $75k
$75,000 (233% FPL)
Now pay 3.3% of income ($2,498)
If expire pay 7.8% of income ($5,865)
Increase in annual payment $3,368
Make $130k and hit the subsidy cliff (that the Democrats built into the original Obamacare law) and they're paying full price.
Full price in 2025 for my family of 5 is $32k for a bronze plan with over $10k deductible per person, max of two deductibles. Subsidy cliff at $150k.
No. of Recommendations: 6
"ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits ExpireACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire"
"Full price in 2025 for my family of 5 is $32k for a bronze plan with over $10k deductible per person"
-------------------------------------
sorry to hear that you're going to get pinched, financially. I'm retired on Medicare,
I'm expecting some higher premiums for Part G supplement, but it will be miniscule
compared to what you are going to get hit with. Do the people in your social circle
know this is coming ? You are on top of it, I hope your friends and family are
aware it's coming, and have a surplus in their financial inflows to deal with it.
You and everybody pre-medicare are going to get hit with substantially higher out of pocket healthcare costs. Americans of every age group are getting hit with higher prices
for pretty much everything we buy, due to Trump tariffs. So the vast majority of
Americans are going to have fewer discretionary $'s available to spend on other
needs ( and wants ).
Our Politicians need to hear, and loudly, our displeasure with the current situation.
Trump has spent approximately $85 Million taxpayer $'s on his frequent golf excursions.
Trump has found $20 Billion taxpayer dollars to give to Argentina. Trump is spending
who knows how much on gold plating the White House.
If I was Dem pol's, I'd be making this known, and loudly. At the same time that
all of the pre-medicare Americans are finding out how much more their healthcare
premiums are going to increase.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Trump is spending who knows how much on gold plating the White House.
There is probably an ad campaign in there somewhere:
Waste! Fraud! Abuse!!
Trump spent $$$$$$ on gold plated decorations for the Oval Office.
Trump spent $$$$$ on a grand ballroom
Trump spent $$$$$ playing golf
Trump spent $$$$ bailing out a crony in Argentina.
Waste! Fraud! Abuse!!
But you didn't hear that from me. Praise Trump! Praise Trump!! Praise Trump!!!
Steve...HBTT
No. of Recommendations: 2
I don't think it would bother the MAGA faithful. He's their Lord and Savior and deserves everything he gets.
Trump is spending who knows how much on gold plating the White House.
There is probably an ad campaign in there somewhere:
Waste! Fraud! Abuse!!
Trump spent $$$$$$ on gold plated decorations for the Oval Office.
Trump spent $$$$$ on a grand ballroom
Trump spent $$$$$ playing golf
Trump spent $$$$ bailing out a crony in Argentina.
Waste! Fraud! Abuse!!
No. of Recommendations: 1
NYT piece on the shutdown (gifted):
“Here Are the Dueling Plans Behind the Shutdown Impasse
Republicans are proposing a straight extension of government spending, while Democrats are demanding the addition of over $1 trillion for health programs.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/us/politics/gov...You can tell from the subtitle where the article is going.
Damn. I don’t like the tactics - it’s not they go low we go high, that’s for sure.
Yet I hope it works. Don’t think it will.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Democrats are demanding the addition of over $1 trillion for health programs.”
In other words, the Dems are trying to unwind some provisions of the BBB. The Repubs say "pass the CR, then we can fix the health insurance thing later"...except this is the "later" attempt to fix what the BBB did. If the Dems let this one go, then we will be back in the same position when the next "later" arrives. It's like the scam my DM are RS tried to work, repeatedly: give him what he wants now, for goodies promised later, except he always had an excuse when "later" arrived, when he had another ask.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 5
Just remember at any moment the Republicans in the Senate can flip the filibuster switch and pass whatever they want. Both sides have used the filibuster to keep from actually having to negotiate and compromise.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Just remember at any moment the Republicans in the Senate can flip the filibuster switch and pass whatever they want. Both sides have used the filibuster to keep from actually having to negotiate and compromise.
Are the Dems really sure that health insurance, now, is the hill they want to die on?
Give the GOP it's head. Watch the reaction among the mob, when reality hits. If it will "play in Peoria", make an issue of it for the mid-terms: "we tried to keep your health insurance affordable, but the Repubs were determined to give that $1T to the rich instead. if you don't like the result, vote Dem".
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
In other words, the Dems are trying to unwind some provisions of the BBB.
On Medicaid cuts, yes.
On the enhanced ACA subsidies, no.
The enhanced subsidies were due to expire at the end of this year.
The Democrats passed them with a built-in expiration.
The BBB simply didn't extend them, why would it?
No. of Recommendations: 0
Just remember at any moment the Republicans in the Senate can flip the filibuster switch and pass whatever they want. Both sides have used the filibuster to keep from actually having to negotiate and compromise.
They can but I understand that's the nuclear option. Has it EVER been done to pass a budget bill?
No. of Recommendations: 0
Darn, meant:
Just remember at any moment the Republicans in the Senate can flip the filibuster switch and pass whatever they want. Both sides have used the filibuster to keep from actually having to negotiate and compromise.
They can but I understand that's the nuclear option. Has it EVER been done to pass a budget bill without using the reconciliation process?
No. of Recommendations: 0
The answer, according to Google:
No, a budget bill has never been passed with only 50 votes in the Senate without using the reconciliation process. The filibuster rule means that most legislation, including appropriations bills that fund the government, requires 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles in the Senate and move to a final vote.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Are the Dems really sure that health insurance, now, is the hill they want to die on?
Sheesh it is the hill the GOP will die on.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Sheesh it is the hill the GOP will die on.
Let’s hope.
No. of Recommendations: 5
No. of Recommendations: 0
Trump will sell out his own voters
That is it? Nope.
He will default on the debt.
He will blame the dems for the debt. We told you for years we can not spend this way.
Then he will cut SS and Medicare.
The kicker as the banks fail, he will cut FDIC.
You are...SOL
No. of Recommendations: 6
He will default on the debt.
Nope, don't think so, because that would hurt his cronies. He will gladly throw Proles under the bus. He, after all, is a "JC", and, to "JCs", Proles are expendable meat.
Read up on the Flint "water crisis". Flint was close to going BK, which would hurt holders of city bonds. So the "JC" Gov of Michigan, appointed an "emergency manager" with authority to usurp the power of local elected officials, and do whatever it took, to make sure the money interests were made whole. One of his moves was to cut off the city water supply from Detroit, and reactivate an old filtration plant, that drew water from the heavily polluted Flint River. Theoretically, with enough treatment, the river water could have been made drinkable, but that would cost money, so they scrimped on treatment. Citizens of the city howled about the muck coming out of their faucets, but, the EM demanded they pay their water bills anyway, because the money interests wanted that money. The GM facilities in Flint, somehow, switched themselves back to the Detroit water system, because the Flint water was corroding their equipment. Then the cases of lead poisoning started showing up, because the corrosive water was leaching lead out of old service lines, that had been safe to use, with better quality water.
Michigan has been a preview of Trumpville: elected officials replaced by authoritarian decree, citizens poisoned for the benefit of the money interests, state capital building overrun by armed goober demonstrators.
Steve....HBTT
No. of Recommendations: 3
Are the Dems really sure that health insurance, now, is the hill they want to die on?
It’s not a bad hill to die on. If they cave on this, every MAGA candidate will rightly be able to say that Democrats voted for the bill and if they don’t like it, it’s the dems fault too.
But if they stand firm and MAGA eventually scraps the filibuster to pass it, Democratic candidates can say that the shutdown was MAGAs fault because they could have scrapped the filibuster at any time. And on top of that, the bill itself cost you this and that and whatever else is bad in the bill.
It all goes back to school yard bully handling. The only solution is to stand up to the bully. You might get a black eye or two, but the bullying will stop.
—Peter
No. of Recommendations: 1
that Democrats voted for the bill and if they don’t like it, it’s the dems fault too.
If the Dems make a straight up or down, vote, rather than invoking a filibuster, they can all vote "no", and the bill passes.
Steve...HBTT
