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We’re presently just under 1.45X 2025 Book. Buffett has previously bought back shares at 1.40 X book and also bought back Estate shares at 1.56 Book.

I don’t expect this report will reveal any 3Q purchases. But, this is now a price range here in early 4Q where he may be buying. Whether it’s fat enough discount to his IV, not sure. It’s a buy to me. I’m adding here.

We’re presently just under 1.45X 2025 Book.

Assumed book? At last known it's at 1.54
1.45 x $309.64 = $449

Concensus estimate YE 2025 book…

And btw, I believe Buffett was a buyer of stock the quarter he bought back Gottlesman estate stock at 1.56 X book. I don’t know what multiple the open market purchases were that quarter, but it was in that ballpark. Apologies if this info is not exactly correct. But we’re in a ballpark where ballpark numbers suffice imo.

What BV per share are you using? My peak book figure is $464,000, but that must be wrong.

Concensus estimate YE 2025 book…

I appreciate the post. I don't think Berkshire looks ahead like that. Here's an illustration I noticed:
When Berkshire was repurchasing shares with a multiplier of book value price limit (1.1 or 1.2), someone at the Annual meeting asked Buffett why he didn't repurchase shares the previous quarter, since the share price fell below that limit. He responded with confusion at the question. He said something like it didn't move below the repurchase limit, we watch it very closely. Buffett was right--it didn't move below last-published book value.

But if you calculated the repurchase level based on book value at Q1, you'd see that Berkshire traded below the repurchase level between January and the release. But using that future-released information would mean Berkshire keeps a live running total of book value to use for repurchases. I don't think Buffett even considers using something like that - that's why his confusion at the attendees question. It's not really in keeping with his description of us as partners.

You're right that he's repurchased large estate stock at higher prices than on the open market. I think he sees a difference between buying out a long term partner with a large quantity of stock available, and keeping the price too high for new partners to see a decent return.

Thanks, appreciate it and agree on all your points. I agree Buffett surely uses trailing calculation..but as an investor I’m gonna take a leap of faith 9 weeks ahead and identify an entry point just before the entry point hits the printing press. And if 0.10 makes me dumb, I was wrong either way :).

And if the stock runs between now and then—my price is locked in and Warren/Greg is priced out. If I’m wrong— well I eat the 0.10 “premium” and get stuck with a great business I bought at a discount to IV 0.10 less than I should have..there are worse problems I have.

That’s at least how I look at his: very high likelihood of being “generally right”.

<<<<someone at the Annual meeting asked Buffett why he didn't repurchase shares the previous quarter, since the share price fell below that limit….

…..future-released information would mean Berkshire keeps a live running total of book value to use for repurchases. I don't think Buffett even considers using something like that …>>>

The questioner was Gregg Warren. To me, this sort of lays bare the dichotomy of how Berkshire does accounting and reporting versus everyone else. Gregg represents the peanut gallery.

“We add up revenues, subtract expenses and report earnings”..Buffett. What a simple idea to follow 😉

Concensus estimate YE 2025 book…

I assume along the lines of: "My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror" :-)

Hey LongTerm...from previous posts it seems you're a very long time holder, and I appreciate your post noting where you think we are on a price to book basis..I'm curious though, for someone who owns it so long, you really feel the need to have more? Or is this something you would trade out of. Thanks

Good question. Glad you asked because every situation IS different. For me, I'm always overweight Berkshire but not quite as overweight as I was a decade ago. LT gains have been a source of consumption. As I've written previously-that's about me-- not BRK.

So, much of what I don't have in Berkshire along with ultra safe short fixed income--I've had in stock index funds. It's a rare time when I feel the indexes are just so way overvalued they should be trimmed--but I've trimmed them recently. So in my LT Berkshire/Index "balance" I've lightened up on the Index recently and I see Berkshire as substantially more attractive and it's not even close. It's not a trade its a small amount of cash intended for the long term-reallocated. Wasn't planning on adding to Berkshire but Berkshire came to me :)

I don't make this move lightly. Re: the Index recently: Don't believe in cutting the rose at the stem per Lynch. So, I had money freed up and, yeah, I'm overweight even more Berkshire to your point.

But on this topic-- Buffett cites Mae West "Too much of a good thing is....wonderful".

Makes perfect sense for formula drive activity.

Buffet wants all shareholder decisions to be based on full disclosure. He never wants to step in front of the shareholders with non public information. So he would therefore only act, if restricted by a formula, to public available announced information.

Now this is not the same thing as his view of IV, which I believe may adjust within a quarter, albeit very little. I don't believe that Buffet believes that IV moves around very quickly. Certainly not because BV is jumping around. However permanent changes in BV, retained earnings, may tilt the scale.

I do think that there is historical evidence to support buy back at pour current price if it sits here for a while.

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