It doesn’t look great on the US equities front to me. Would expect Berkshire to stand up well in comparison. But would be surprised if it does much from here, unless they are presented with incredible opportunities and take them.

My internal monologue goes something like this. Valuations have been expanding for an extended number of years and are now off the charts. In 1929 the market got to 20 times earnings. Today that seems reasonable. Today we have companies like Tesla and Micro Strategy (Strategy as it’s now called) which are just complete vapour. We have crypto and we have leveraged treasury holdings companies accumulating crypto.

The everything bubble began to crash in 2022 and it cleared some of the excesses like NFTs but then generative AI came along and stopped the correction in its tracks. The bubble has since reinflated to become bigger than ever and more concentrated. We an inflation problem and a government debt problem.

It looks grim. But of course it might keep going up. I would not want to be all in on US equities at the moment.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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