Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of RIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of RIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Retirement Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (18) |
Author: rayvt ✧☼🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 1355 
Subject: Re: Protecting the Downside
Date: 09/23/25 4:58 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 6
I would submit that
adding to gold holdings and maybe more international stocks are the best paths
is the opposite of avoid[ing] the big mistake.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

"More Money Has Been Lost Avoiding Risk Than at the Point of a Gun"

Gold? I was a gold bug several decades ago, at the time my first kid was born. My head got straightened out long before the 29 year-long recovery got, um, recovered. I'd rather do bitcoin. testfol.io: Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation

International stocks? Have you been keeping track in the news of what's happening with the European economies?
Also:
"Google AI Overview:
While a generalized "mass migration" of investments to the US is not occurring, several trends show the US attracting a significant amount of international investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has seen substantial inflows"


--------------
lessen to blow of a big 30-50% drop

Roger Nusbaum:
" ... effective is simply defined as avoiding the full brunt of a large decline. Aside from my belief in its effectiveness, the 200-day SMA is simple to explain and understand.
No one rule is always correct. they all give false signals."
"The moving average timing strategy makes the majority of its money by avoiding large, sustained market downturns. To be able to avoid those downturns, it has to accept a large number of small losses associated with switches that prove to be unnecessary. Numerically, more than 75% of all of MMA’s trades turn out to be losing trades."

Straight SMA has too many sell signals. Better is GTT timing which looks to two FRED statistics of the economy to decide when it ignore an SMA sell signal.
IMHO

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to rayvt here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 1,284 posts about Retirement Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
The Case for Long-Term Buy and Hold Investing · 49 recs · 2025
Transferring assets to the next generation · 20 recs · 2025
Retirement Year 8 · 17 recs · 2025
(nearly) year one of retirement has been good · 11 recs · 2026
Buying Treasuries Via Vanguard · 10 recs · 2023
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (18) |


Announcements
Retirement Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of RI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community