No. of Recommendations: 17
Rayvt, if you happen to read this, any sense of whether this might be a short-term correction or the inception of something more protracted?Here's what my daily (11/18/25) update was:
Timing: Disconfirm recession, stay IN stocks
Timing: IN stocks (+7.6% vs. SMA) (# 108 consecutive weeks) not in recession"Bull markets climb a wall of worry."
"True bear markets start slowly giving many months to get out as was the case in both 2000 and late 2007 into 2008. Fast declines, or panics typically retrace quickly and are better bought than sold for someone who is a trader.
It does not make sense to try to sell now before any indicator is triggered because (repeated for emphasis) there may not be a recession. It makes more sense to heed a trigger in the market for defensive action because in addition to it being objective and simple, stocks will turn down before the next recession, whenever that is, as a function of normal market behavior; capital markets turn down before the economy. Also if somehow there was a recession but stocks did not go down there would be no reason to sell.
Typically, waiting a few weeks here or there to get out when you are talking about a huge correction isn’t meaningful. It may feel like getting out of the market quickly is the right move at times, but that is our emotions talking. Research and experience show that trades driven by human emotions tend to be the wrong moves for the long-term, which is why we rely on our rules and data driven signals – both of which are constructed at a time when emotions are not high."
-- Newfound Research
"Fear is a stronger emotion than hope. The secret of making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. Never bet on the end of the world, It only happens once."-- Art Cashin, director at UBS Financial Services
"Over the last 100 years the stock market has experienced on average a 5% correction three times per year, a 10% correction once per year and a 20% correction once every three and a half years.
Stock market investors should expect to lose a little money quite often, see a correction occasionally, lose a decent amount every couple years and lose a lot of money on an Olympics-like schedule.
5% losses three times a year.
10% losses once a year.
15% losses once every two years.
20% losses once every three to four years
This realization that you know something is eventually going to happen, but you have no control over when or why it will happen can be extremely liberating as an investor. Understanding what you do and don’t know is a huge step in the right direction."
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/01/how-market...Ken Fisher has a few youtube videos where he talks about this, and how a true bear market behaves and what it does over its lifetime. You have plenty of time to get out of a true bear market.
PLENTY OF TIMESharp quick drops are a typical happening in a normal (non-bear) market.
Not fun, but that's the game.
