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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: Lear ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 1198 
Subject: Re: FKA: DG
Date: 11/20/24 12:23 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Sub $73 today, based on a reaction to Target's earnings and guidance. Now at roughly 12.5 estimated 2024 earnings.

I haven't seen any news of DG rolling out debt. My assumption is they aren't, and are paying off the Sep 2024 notes with cash on hand (note was at $750 million) -- which had grown from $353 million to $1.22 billion from Aug 29 2023 to Aug 29 2024. Has anyone seen news on this?

Even still, given the cash continuing to come in, I imagine DG is getting close to resuming buybacks, if store profitability isn't degrading further (analysts are still projecting in increase in EPS next year, not a decrease, FWIW).

I don't think the dividend is in trouble, but using all or most of the cash rolling in to buyback shares would sure be a better use of funds at the moment.

Notes outstanding as of the last 10-Q (end of August):

4.250% Senior Notes due September 20, 2024 (net of discount of $58 and $230) 749,942 749,770
4.150% Senior Notes due November 1, 2025 (net of discount of $117 and $162) 499,883 499,838
3.875% Senior Notes due April 15, 2027 (net of discount of $136 and $160) 599,864 599,840
4.625% Senior Notes due November 1, 2027 (net of discount of $351 and $400) 549,649 549,600
4.125% Senior Notes due May 1, 2028 (net of discount of $210 and $237) 499,790 499,763
5.200% Senior Notes due July 5, 2028 (net of discount of $112 and $124) 499,888 499,876
3.500% Senior Notes due April 3, 2030 (net of discount of $409 and $441) 960,485 951,240
5.000% Senior Notes due November 1, 2032 (net of discount of $2,057 and $2,155) 697,943 697,845
5.450% Senior Notes due July 5, 2033 (net of discount of $1,459 and $1,521) 998,541 998,479
4.125% Senior Notes due April 3, 2050 (net of discount of $4,621 and $4,670) 495,379 495,330
5.500% Senior Notes due November 1, 2052 (net of discount of $286 and $288) 299,714 299,712
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This community has written 1,188 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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