No. of Recommendations: 24
"The deeper irony is that current multiples are levels that we would once have considered low, and buying opportunities, prior to the credit crunch.
The average P/B 2000-2007 inclusive was 1.654"
One of the reasons I don't think BRK is terribly overvalued is because the interest rate environment is going back to normal. It is for certain that ever since the 07/08 housing crisis, but even for a decade or more before that monetary policy was loose and easy. I am old enough to remember when the FED talked about tightening rates to cool off an overheated economy. When Greenspan took over as FED Chair, talk like that stopped. Since Greenspan monetary policy has always been loose. The only argument has been over the degree of looseness. There has been no doubt that since the 07/08 credit crunch, monetary policy has been extremely loose.
Here is the thing, an extremely loose monetary policy hurts a company like BRK more than it helps.
Don't get me wrong, BRK benefits from loose monetary policy. Warren was able to do his negative interest rate SQUARZ deal. The subs can all get cheap financing to fund their expansion. However, other companies benefit far more from access to cheap money. For example, cheap money allows any Tom, Dick, or Harry to set up an insurance company in the Bahamas and start competing with Berkshire. Or if an outside company hit some distress and had their stock price tank, hedge funds or private equity was there with access to cheap loans to bid up the price of the company so Buffett would never really have a chance to get the company cheap.
One of the biggest advantages BRK has ever had was using float as a means to have access to cheap money to invest. My keeping monetary policy loose for over 30 years, the FED negated (or at least minimized) Berkshires advantage of cheap capital by giving it to everyone. But now that monetary is going to go back to being closer to normal, BRK will once again have an advantage with access to capital.
That will add something to the long term value of BRK.
