Putin has been clear from the start that he intends to reconstruct the Russian Empire with himself as head.

On Monday, Trump declared he made a breakthrough, stating the Putin would be willing to accept an Article 5 style security agreement for Ukraine.

Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clarified that Russia would have to be on the guarantors, essentially giving Russia veto power over the security agreement. This is essentially the same as Russia's proposal in the draft 2022 Istanbul Protocol which was never signed.

In short, Russia hasn't budged a bit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/world/europe/uk...

Ukraine's hand isn't great, but it isn't all bad either. Russia is still advancing, but at a glacial pace. Mostly capturing empty fields and tiny villages. Analysts suggest Russia suffers about 20,000 casualties per month, and is generating about 20,000 troops per month. So their rate of advance appears to matched to their ability to generate new forces.

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