No. of Recommendations: 17
I usually wait to post economic indicators on my Sunday Control Panel post. But these seem too timely to wait.
See
https://discussion.fool.com/t/leading-economic-ind... for all active links.
This reminds me of the time my family was out fishing and my dad raced for harbor after seeing an approaching cold front.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowThe Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-produc...Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
The Atlanta Fed’s model tends to be accurate so this rapid decline is concerning.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Initial Claims
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSAInitial unemployment claims increased to 242,000. This is probably noise. But it doesn’t include laid-off government workers. The government is the largest employer in the U.S.
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-an...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded slightly for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Demand weakened. Uncertainty over tariffs has caused confusion. Manufacturing is only a small part of the economy but the more important Services report hasn’t been updated yet.
Industrial production has been stable (hasn’t grown) since the end of the pandemic.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Industrial Production: Total Index
Industrial Production: Total Index
The leading economic index looks OK but other indicators are more pessimistic.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Leading Index for the United States
Leading Index for the United States
tradingeconomics.com
United States Leading Index
Leading Economic Index the United States increased to 101.50 in January of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Coincident Index - plus previous releases, historical high and...
Economic optimism is fading.
tradingeconomics.com
United States Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Index in the United States decreased to 49.80 points in March from 52 points in February of 2025. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index - plus previous releases, historical...
Treasury spreads are following a pattern which is typical of pre-recession. The entire yield curve has dropped in the past week. The short end is now lower than the fed funds rate.
stockcharts.com
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Dynamic Yield Curve | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
Visualize the relationship between interest rates and stocks over time using our draggable, interactive yield curve charting tool.
fred.stlouisfed.org
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
fred.stlouisfed.org
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Stock market indicators are falling rapidly.
stockcharts.com
CandleGlance | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
Quickly and easily view and analyze mini-charts of up to 12 different symbols simultaneously, all displayed side-by-side on a single page
The METAR is for an incoming cold front. It’s too soon to say how serious.
Wendy
