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I was wondering if I should mark this "OT", but I believe, long term, it will potentially affect the US economy - and thus Berkshire Hathaway. Then I thought about posing it on one of the political boards - but I believe it's too important to bury in a bunch of partisan rhetoric. And METAR is too esoteric - so, for better ort worse, I'm posting it here.

President Donald Trump's administration has warned that Europe faces "civilisational erasure" and questioned whether certain nations can remain reliable allies, in a new strategy document that puts a particular focus on the continent. The new report doubles down on Trump's point of view, calling for the restoration of "Western identity", combatting foreign influence, ending mass migration, and focusing more on US priorities such as stopping drug cartels.

Focusing on Europe, it asserts that if current trends continue the continent would be "unrecognisable in 20 years or less" and its economic issues are "eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure".

"It is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies," the document states.

It also accused the European Union and "other transnational bodies" of carrying out activities that "undermine political liberty and sovereignty", said migration policies were "creating strife" and said other issues included "censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence".

Conversely, the document hails the growing influence of "patriotic European parties" and says "America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit":

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c04vdengk3do

The 33-page National Security Strategy sees the US leader outline his vision for the world and how he will wield US military and economic power to work towards it.

Trump described the document as a "roadmap" to ensure America remains "the greatest and most successful nation in human history".

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c04vdengk3do

The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense...

While bits and pieces are coming out in foreign news, the US has just issued a major policy change. Like an elephant being described by the blind, the following have cropped up:

US Strategy Urges Halt to NATO Expansion, Warns Europe of ‘Civilizational Erasure’:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65687

The Trump administration has privately informed European allies that Washington will no longer remain NATO’s primary conventional defense provider beyond 2027, three people familiar with classified conversations this week told Kyiv Post.

The development marks a dramatic shift that puts Europe on a strict countdown as war rages in Ukraine and uncertainty hangs over transatlantic security.

According to briefings delivered to European counterparts mid-week, senior Pentagon officials said the Indo-Pacific remains the administration’s top priority and that the US “cannot fight two wars at once,” making a structural transfer of NATO’s conventional defense responsibilities to Europe non-negotiable:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/65690

I'm not going to comment on the obviously important societal/political challenges outlined in the report an the implications it makes about Europe's future. What is important here is the apparent deemphasizing of Europe to allow the US to presumably concentrate on eastern Asia/Oceania and South America.

Whether or not the US is able to force an end to the Russo-Ukraine war, it is likely that Europe is about to rearm as there is significant concern that Russia has further ambitions to continue moving its zone of influence further westward.

The US de-emphasizing of Europe not only encourages accelerated European spending on arms and, by implication, European-built arms. There are a number of stocks owned by Berkshire Hathaway, such as Mitsubishi (ship building) who could directly benefit from broader sourcing of weapons systems, but for those looking to diversify beyond the US defense contractors, the following might be interesting.

Some ideas:

- European diversification:
Germany (Rheinmetall)
UK (BAE, Rolls-Royce, QinetiQ, Chemring)
France (Thales, Dassault, Safran, Naval Group)
France/Germany (KNDS (Kalamazoo Naval Defense Systems)
Italy (Leonardo)
Sweden (Saab)
Norway (Kongsberg)
Finland/Norway (Nammo)
Turkey (MKEK)

- Asia-Pacific presence:
Japan (Mitsubishi, Kawasaki)
South Korea (Hanwha)
Israel (Elbit, IAI)

Jeff

"civilisational erasure"

That is a racist dog whistle that everyone can hear.

Perhaps the author of that document might want to go visit the Statue of Liberty or something.

Well this is certainly an interesting topic and it definitely has an overall effect on the country and investments in general. Right now this is such a radical shift that there is just no way to possibly gameplay as to what the effects will be. Will this shift actually take place before Trumpism dies a quick (or slow) death? What if some unforeseen event happens and the US suddenly needs NATO? How does a world that has become more interconnected via communications actually take a step backward with more isolationism? Colour me skeptical of the whole thing (pun entirely intended).....

For starters, let's just call this shift what it is- cloaked white nationalism. I don't see that surviving as normal people wake up to it's actual purpose. One thing has been consistent since man walked out of the cave- movement for better opportunity. This is built in our DNA and frankly speaking it knows no colour, religion or creed. It has happened and is going to continue to happen despite any attempts by an overzealous group of incompetents that just happen to be of the white pigmentation this time. But make no mistake- some other group of incompetents of a different pigmentation persuasion will take their swing of the bat if a similar movement gets out of control in a different region. Unfortunately, ignorance is a part of our DNA too!

Putting the genie back in the bottle has never worked and every time it's attempted the results are predictably disastrous. So the question really is not where does this go and how do we position our investments but how much damage gets done before it's easily predictable demise?

"civilisational erasure"

That is a racist dog whistle that everyone can hear.


What an amazingly subtle sense of hearing one must have to hear worries about threats to civilization as necessarily racist, while hearing no evil in 'Death to America', 'First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people', and 'From the river to the sea.'

dtb

Europe ... would be "unrecognisable in 20 years or less" ... civilizational erasure".
......
whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong
......
It also accused the European Union and "other transnational bodies" of carrying out activities that "undermine political liberty and sovereignty", said migration policies were "creating strife" and said other issues included "censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence".

Unfortunately all of the above is exactly my experience in Germany over the last 2 decades and the trend continues. What the report --- or at least the quote --- does not mention: That historically if a pendulum swings too much in one direction unavoidably at some point the counter-actions comes, it swings (also too far) in the opposite direction --- with signs of that already on the horizon in Germany/Europe (I don´t elaborate; too political for here; the ones affected/living here anyway know what I am talking about).

Economically seen --- the for humans and humanity in general actually far less important part, but more suitable for this board --- this for me means that the current downward spiral of especially Germany´s economy unavoidably will continue, which is why I personally diversified more and more around different jurisdictions, even continents, not trusting Germany/Europe and also not the US anymore to be any longer willing to put all my eggs in one basket.

Unfortunately Europe feels very much in decline🥲.

Let’s just call it for what it is, “the Islamization of Western Europe.” Demography is destiny.

"What an amazingly subtle sense of hearing one must have to hear worries about threats to civilization as necessarily racist, while hearing no evil in 'Death to America', 'First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people', and 'From the river to the sea.'" - DTB

Hmm, what makes you think that I hear no evil in "Death to America' chants? Have you just decided to make shit up about what people say because you cannot argue against what they actually say?

What in the hell happened to you? You used to be so much better? Have you fallen down the Fox News hole?

"Let’s just call it for what it is, “the Islamization of Western Europe.” Demography is destiny." - Whiplash

That is nuts.

Having just come back from a two-week vacation in Europe, I can assure you that England, France, and The Netherlands still have similar cultures to what they had 20 years ago.

If anything, a better description would be the Westernization of Islamic migrants.

DTB is one of the best and most credible posters on this board.

After a 2 week vacation in Europe umm is now the expert on the entire region. UCMTSU

The Trump administration released the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States of America. It did so quietly, although as foreign affairs journalist at Politico Nahal Toosi noted, the release of the NSS is usually accompanied by fanfare, as it shows an administration’s foreign policy priorities and the way it envisions the position of the U.S. in the world.

The Trump administration’s NSS announces a dramatic reworking of the foreign policy the U.S. has embraced since World War II.

National security specialist Anne Applebaum wrote: “The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly.”
European Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Ulrike Franke commented: “The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a speech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.”

For those interested in the ramifications, I have not seen a more thorough rendition than here:

https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson...

Jeff

PS: Heather Cox Richardson, an American historian, has churned out a free daily email of this clarity and length (with footnoted sources) for years. I find it required reading.

It depends where you go and how it's managed by Governments. Some are very conscious of keeping touristy areas tidy others not. (Mainland Europe)

In the UK there's been a lot of change imo. It's often concentrated in certain towns and cities. I used to visit Birmingham as a youngster as I had friends studying there and it's changed a lot. Working in London recently for 6 months it's changed a lot.

I have been trying to figure out why successive Governments have encouraged mass migration when the majority do not want it (Brexit). My research suggests it's demographics and keeping the lights on in terms of taxation, national insurance, and paying for liabilities such as massive pension obligations, NHS and benefits. (UK State pension £3.5trn unfunded, public sector pensions £1.5trn unfunded)

The OBR suggests the UK needs 350k people net per annum, even though it appears it's a failed strategy and a short term fix.

Immigrants will also age and evidence suggests they also become a liability in thelong term as fertility rates fall and cost a lot more than pay in tax and NI. (Not the case for highly skilled workers)

So now we have the Reform Party leading in the polls @ 35% and Labour at 14% Conservatives at 14%

I was wondering if I should mark this "OT",

It is OT for the Berkshire board.

Europe is committing suicide. No need to list examples, y'all read the news too.
Trump want to decouple the US from that--we have enough problems of our own.

Prior to Brexit the UK had many more from eastern europe. (Poland, Bulgaria and Romania) many have left but quite a few have stayed and integrated well. Figures suggest from 2019 onwards 80% of immigrants are now from outside Europe.

Addressing briefly the broader agenda of the report rather than the investment implications---

I'm a glass half full kind of guy. I always like to look for the silver lining in things. Even the weirdest rant often contains some good ideas, or thoughts that trigger good ideas.
Here's one: In this case, if one of the key intents is that Europe must work harder "combatting foreign influence", then it's wholly consistent with the advice to tell Mr Vance to stick his brown nose elsewhere, right?


More seriously, should Europe foot the bill for its own defence? Sure, even if the US has perhaps received a positive return from their expenditure because of the direct benefits to the US of the resultant peace and commerce.

Is Europe going to have more and more settlement/integration problems and costs in the next few decades as the northern half of Africa becomes uninhabitable and people move north en masse? Sure. I assume it will be the biggest population migration in the history of humankind. Those folks are behaving quite rationally, I might add--I'd do the same in their shoes. As an aside, I'm not sure why the US administration would be worried about this--global warming being a hoax and all.

Does all that mean that the people running the US government should endorse neo-nazi parties in European elections, that a Great Replacement Theory horror is imminent, or that such parties might forestall it if put in charge? Umm, no to all. (I'm not sure, but I don't think Godwin's law applies if one is talking about actual neo-nazis...)


As for investment strategies such moves indicate, I have two general directions of thought. The nice guy approach, investing only in firms that do stuff so uncontentious and boring that nobody will bother to undermine them and they'll prosper even out the other side of any chaos. Breweries have long histories for this reason. And the dark side: buy into the firms doing the most lobbying. Those reliably do well, or at least better than other things, when governance takes a turn towards the Big Man theory. Look into the white papers from Strategas, mentioned here https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/c... "Strategas has tracked a "Lobbying Basket" since 2009, which has consistently outperformed the broader market, even during periods when active management struggled. "

Jim

Personally, I'm open minded. However, the UK feels incredibly crowded at 70m and they're talking about pushing toward 80m by 2040.

The economy is stagnant, (feels like that the last 20 years) we now have millions more people with crumbling infrastructure and nothing seems to work - NHS waiting lists etc.

Roads at peak times are gridlocked (like the M25) all over south now.

Doesn't make sense to me, if you take in a million more there will be another million to follow.

Meanwhile deficits and interest payments increase and we're all getting comparatively worse off and taxes keep going up.

Unsustainable? When's the collapse?

Having just come back from a two-week vacation in Europe, I can assure you that England, France, and The Netherlands still have similar cultures to what they had 20 years ago.

Really?

20 years ago England tossed women in jail after they got assaulted?
“A British woman, who was the victim of a serious assault that left her hospitalised, is now being convicted of a hate crime because she used the F word, a slur, to describe her attacker,”

20 years ago hundreds of young girls in Rotherham were sexually abused by grooming gangs of predominantly Pakistani men"?

Although I guess Paris had no-go zones (arrondissements) even 20 years ago. France should have walked away from Algeria and shut the door.

But, hey, if people can now become experts in a field after 10 minutes of google, then 2 weeks in tourist areas is certainly enough to become a cultural expert.

Meanwhile deficits and interest payments increase and we're all getting comparatively worse off and taxes keep going up.

Unsustainable? When's the collapse?

"slowly, and then all at once"




I get more news about Canada than the UK & Europe, it seems to me that any collapse is likely to happen to Canada before the UK.
"There is a great deal of ruin in a nation" and Canada has a smaller economy and is much physically farther from trade partners. Except for one trade partner who they seem to enjoy pissing off.

There is a bit to learn from history. Mexico found out in the early 1800's what happens when a large chunk of people from a different culture settle on your land.

"20 years ago England tossed women in jail after they got assaulted?
“A British woman, who was the victim of a serious assault that left her hospitalised, is now being convicted of a hate crime because she used the F word, a slur, to describe her attacker,”

20 years ago hundreds of young girls in Rotherham were sexually abused by grooming gangs of predominantly Pakistani men"?

Although I guess Paris had no-go zones (arrondissements) even 20 years ago. France should have walked away from Algeria and shut the door.
"

Yes, I am fairly sure 20 years ago some woman somewhere in England was assaulted. I am also sure 20 years ago some young girls somewhere in Rotherham were sexually abused.

The actual incidents that you discuss indicate very clearly where you get your information from and it is a very poor source. It takes advantage of you and makes you look silly. They like to take isolated incidents and make it look like it is the norm when it comes to immigrants. It is good for scaring the sheeple.

For example, look at the incident of the shooting of the national guard soldiers in Washington. One Afghani (who risked his life for the U.S.) suffers from mental problems (which is not uncommon on those exposed to the horror of combat) and crazily shoots the soldiers. So now your sources of information use it to attack 300,000 plus Afghanis living in the U.S. who have done nothing wrong. It is called painting with a broad brush. Yet oddly enough, when a Caucasian American soldier suffers from mental problems and shoots up someone, the sources of information you regularly use don't use it to paint all Caucasians or all soldiers.

Your sources are very good at feeding on your fears and biases.

Speaking of sexual abuse. There was a Caucasian billionaire who regularly sexually abused women. That means we should worry about all Caucasian billionaires abusing women right?

"Mexico found out in the early 1800's what happens when a large chunk of people from a different culture settle on your land."

America found out in the 1800's what happens when a large chunk of people from different cultures settle on your land. Seriously, go visit the Statue of Liberty. Maybe you will learn something and not have to live in so much fear.

Having just come back from a two-week vacation in Europe, I can assure you that England, France, and The Netherlands still have similar cultures to what they had 20 years ago.

Nothing more needs to be said! You’re so smart.

isolated incidents and make it look like it is the norm ... where you get your information from and it is a very poor source
Umm, that´s of course in general a valid point.

Therefore regarding your thesis
I can assure you that England, France, and The Netherlands still have similar cultures to what they had 20 years ago.
I have a suggestion:

Though it seems you did not visit it during your holiday, may I include Germany as France´s & Netherland´s neighbour in your list? If yes, I suggest you study German crime statistics and compare "before 2015" with the development "after 2015" (the year Angela Merkel opened the borders), categorized by crimes and nationalities. Each "Bundesland" (State) publishes the yearly numbers. To make it less work I suggest you just have a look at the crime statistics of "Nordrhein-Westfalen", the state with the highest population (18 million people out of 83).

It´s a highly enlightening not anectodal theme from a trustworthy source (though Germany degenerated we are still not so low that we´d fake our official crime statistics).

If you follow up upon this suggestion I would be very curious whether you uphold or change your opinion.

Having just come back from a two-week vacation in Europe, I can assure you that...
...
Nothing more needs to be said! You’re so smart.

To be fair, the same comments might have been raised from time to time about Mr Vance and Mr Trump. I presume even their biggest boosters recognize that they have negligible personal insights into the politics or economics of European countries and their inhabitants. Generally everyone the world understands it's all aimed primarily at a US domestic audience anyway, despite any real world consequences for better or worse. Note, none of that is to say that everything they say is wrong, just that it's primarily performative. Much like a lot of European political stuff these days.

My wife spent a week in St Louis once, so we can write an outstanding polemic on how they should run their state(s). Smash that "like" button to subscribe for details.

Jim

Hmm, what makes you think that I hear no evil in "Death to America' chants? Have you just decided to make shit up about what people say because you cannot argue against what they actually say?


You are right, I don’t know what you think about these much more serious threats to civilization, and I apologize for having suggested that you, like so many others, might not take them seriously enough, when I had no way of knowing that.

dtb

What if some unforeseen event happens and the US suddenly needs NATO?

Good point! If such an event occurs, it would be imperative that the parts of NATO that aren't the US are ready and able to support that need! So it's probably a good thing for those parts of NATO to beef up their capabilities.

🇩🇪 is my biggest concern. Without a strong and thriving Germany, European cohesion falls apart and China / Russia are rubbining their hands with glee.

Do the super-rich in America really believe savings accounts for newborn kids is a priority over food and shelter security? The financial community would love to open accounts for tens of millions of kids, get their social security numbers and generate commissions and fees for 75 years off these accounts but get real. The Buffett pledge is very nice, BUT, waiting for the super-rich to die and put half their wealth into charitable foundations is too little too late. Trumps next move to save capitalism should be to get 250 billionaires to agree to gift 1 percent of their net worth to a fund that will build affordable housing for 500,000 Americans, next year, or capitalism as we know it is in America is in deep trouble. The Sanders Warren Aoc crew will win in 28 and then the rich may face serious tax consequences, if they can't buy off the democrat socialists.

Stay tuned America.

"Nothing more needs to be said! You’re so smart."

Why am I not surprised you missed the point and could only offer up this stupid response? Says a lot.

"You are right, I don’t know what you think about these much more serious threats to civilization, and I apologize for having suggested that you, like so many others, might not take them seriously enough, when I had no way of knowing that."

Sarcasm is even more unbecoming. Digging the hole deeper by using even more bad logic. What happened to you?

"You are right, I don’t know what you think about these much more serious threats to civilization, and I apologize for having suggested that you, like so many others, might not take them seriously enough, when I had no way of knowing that."

Sarcasm is even more unbecoming. Digging the hole deeper by using even more bad logic. What happened to you?


It actually wasn't sarcasm but I suppose I can't convince you and it's probably best that we drop it.

There's certainly a lot of independent reporters and vloggers documenting Europe.

Here's one about Brussels, vlogged by an Irish/ German couple who are world travellers, now focussing on Europe.

https://youtu.be/pX16UxlT0fU?si=p5OZUpRl91Pkqntz

Let’s just call it for what it is, “the Islamization of Western Europe.” Demography is destiny.

Do you know any Muslim people? You ever been in a mosque? I know many. Some women wear scarves, just like my Sicilian granny, and some don’t. My neighbors are Muslim. Good family people with the same dreams and desires as the Thais next door or the Jewish family across the street. We are united by the same concerns. Good schools for our kids, safe neighborhoods for our families, neighborliness, and a strong economy for our children.

I truly don’t understand the hate in so many people’s hearts these days.

I truly don’t understand the hate in so many people’s hearts these days.

Xenophobia is baked into our evolutionary history. That's a real problem.

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