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- Manlobbi
Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
No. of Recommendations: 13
Not so much falling knives and slow motion train wrecks. I am stepping into consumer noncyclicals. Not in a huge way, but Energizer (ENR), Campbells (CPB), Flower Foods (FLO), Haleon (HLN), and Kraft Heinz (KHC).
I stopped short of Conagra (CAG) because it was too messy. Similarly for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), but for being too clean.
I just wanted to post this so I could publicly shame myself for poor decision making years down the line.
No. of Recommendations: 4
While you are on a self-flaggelation streak, why not grab some Comcast, Charter Communications (forward PE of 3.6), Lululemon, Novo Nordisk and T. Rowe Price, all stuck in quicksand they keep sinking deeper into.
I am hoping someone turns at least one of them into a meme stock.
No. of Recommendations: 5
I admire your intrepidity! I'm with you on KHC. Watching CAG and CALM as well. Along with PFE, UNH, VZ and IP - I call them my "turnarounds." Most of them are probably hopeless...
abromber
No. of Recommendations: 2
These all seem to be places to sit your money while Wall Street goes Gaga blowing up the AI balloon.
I’m feeling like now is a good time to reread Security Analysis before the bubble well and truly bursts. This one feels different.
No. of Recommendations: 13
I can see some attractions for Kraft Heinz. A cash cow with a 10% earnings yield. More if the current earnings dip ends up transient and they start making ~$3 again.
Sales per share are almost precisely flat for a decade, but they do make money every day and aren't about to go broke. Thought of as a bond substitute, it probably isn't a useless pick. Current yield 6.77%, same dividend for about 7 years but it seems covered for now.
And hey, maybe they'll do a pinch better and the multiples will expand a bit. Who knows? When nobody expects anything good to happen, new bad news is generally ignored and new good news can cause a big change.
Value Line, perhaps unusually, sums it up well: The only certain positive trait is the modest valuation.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 4
Not in a huge way, but Energizer (ENR), Campbells (CPB), Flower Foods (FLO), Haleon (HLN), and Kraft Heinz (KHC).
Funny, I just bought an insignificant amount of CPB last week. Mainly it was due to the dividend being more attractive than another dividend stock I own. But also for the soup memes I "can" send my other investing friends now :)
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 4
While you are on a self-flaggelation streak, why not grab some Comcast, Charter Communications (forward PE of 3.6), Lululemon, Novo Nordisk and T. Rowe Price, all stuck in quicksand they keep sinking deeper into.
Ha! I just doubled my stake in comcast so right there with you.
No. of Recommendations: 1
...why not grab some Comcast
Actually, I did today @ 22.48. Pays a nice divvy while I wait (unless, of course, they reduce or suspend it).
I've got NFLX on my radar, also. :-)
No. of Recommendations: 5
Considered SAP at $155? Almost exactly half its price a year ago.
Of course it's not dirt cheap in absolute terms, only relative to its own history. 18.6 times consensus 2026 EPS, 15.8 times consensus 2027.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 4
Comcast up 22% this morning, as the company says it plans to split into two pieces.
No. of Recommendations: 0
I was pretty happy about ENR's performance over the past month. I looked into CMCSA on your recommendation but hadn't pulled the trigger, congratulations.
It has pulled back a bit, but I like the split. I initiated a position at ~6.5-7% up from the open.
No. of Recommendations: 4
NIKE is hitting lows today, in advance of earnings tomorrow. Its one of my biggest losers so far, so bringing it into this thread because I put in a limit order to buy more. My limit order may not clear because the share price seems to be going up over the day, but I scratch my head a bit about why I am doing it at all. Apparently, I just can't seem to quite being interested in value traps - its like a drug addiction that is going to ruin me.
No. of Recommendations: 2
For what it is worth I changed my mind from earlier and entered Conagra in some size (for my very pathologically diversified portfolio) around $14.
I did some exploration of what it would cost to simply rebuild their manufacturing base and the current price doesn't make sense. I think the dividend gets cut by 50-75% and their is a relief rally. The brand portfolio is gravy on top of the facilities.
I'm going to look at NKE next, but I feel like I don't know enough about sneaker collecting as an activity. It seems like it would be small but high margin.
No. of Recommendations: 4
I'm waiting for the dividend cut before buying CAG.
Is DIS a Falling Knife? Down 22% for the year, almost 50% from its highs 5 years ago. New CEO and earnings have stabilized around $7/share. ROE over 10%, but the environment is still treacherous for them. The fall hasn't been precipitous, but it has been steady.
abromber
