Invite ye felawes and frendes desirous in gold to enter the gates of Shrewd'm, for they will thanke ye later.
- Manlobbi
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
No. of Recommendations: 1
I came upon this strategy. Over ten years, if you used this with TQQQ, you would have 23 times your money. The only issue is the last ten years were a bull market. One way to do it, is once you doubled your investment, sell what you put in originally, so you are playing with house money.
No. of Recommendations: 4
And the strategy.
Trading Rules for Bull Strategy:
1. Start with $100,000.
1. In the US, invest in one of the following:
QQQ (1X)
QLD (2X)
TQQQ (3X)
2. In Canada, invest is one of the following:
XQQ (1X)
HQU (2X)
There are no triples in Canada
4. Buy when the weekly 2 EMA moves above the 5 EMA for each position.
5. Once a crossover has been determined, you then buy on the Monday open the next week.
6. Sell when the trailing stop is reached for QQQ/XQQ (5%), QLD/HQU (10%), and TQQQ (15%). In the event of a gap down over night which is lower than the trailing stop, sell at the open price.
7. An automatic sell on each position gets triggered once a trailing stop is reached. No buy back into the portfolio until the following week based on the strategy above (See 4 and 5).
8. Stay in cash until the 2 EMA moves back above the 5 EMA for each position on a weekly basis.
9. In all cases, all buys can only be made on a Monday or the day after a Monday holiday based on the results of the previous week.
10. No contras or shorts.
No. of Recommendations: 10
The only issue is the last ten years were a bull market.
Not commenting on the strategy, but the GTR1 can simulate TQQQ back to the birth of the Nasdaq using {!N1TL3} as a synthetic ticker. QLD would be {!N1TL2}.
That said, the NASDAQ itself was a different beast back in the day. It probably makes sense to start the backtest with the birth of QQQ (1999) or SPY (1991). That's far enough for you to see what happened in the 2000 and 2008 bears.
Baltassar
No. of Recommendations: 10
Too complicated. Too many steps with magic numbers.
Also, stops don't guarantee a price, they just guarantee a sell.
(BTW, it would be useful to post the link to these strategies when you mention them.)
Here's a simpler strategy that delivers 22 times your money in the last 10 years (11/6/2015 - 11/6/2025).
Ready?
Step 1) Buy TQQQ.
Step 2) There is no step 2.
There is a little tweak that delivers
41 times your money in the same time period.
Timing rule:
If QQQ did not have a new 90 day high in the last 90 days, sell.
Every day, after the close:
1) See if this day's close is the high close of the last 90 days.
2) See if any of the last 90 days was flagged as a 90 day high.
3) If yes, buy/hold. If no, sell.
There were 20 trades (10 sells, 10 buys) in that period.
Since TQQQ inception:
TQQQ B&H Timed
CAGR 42.5% 42.8%
stdev 61.2% 56.4%
MaxDD -82% -58%
# days 3957 3957
# DD >50% 441 41
# DD >25% 1137 1004
$1000 grows to
$260,728 $266,860
No. of Recommendations: 9
One way to do it, is once you doubled your investment, sell what you put in originally, so you are playing with house money.
There is no such thing as "house money". That's what gamblers tell themselves to feel better when they lose.
Once a bit of money hits your pocket it is YOUR MONEY. It used to be somebody else's money, but now it is yours.
No. of Recommendations: 0
There is no link. It is a vectorvest strategy that Bob Turnbull uses.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Ray, that is helpful.
No. of Recommendations: 1
rayvt,
Thank you for your post.
I am not sure if I can follow your numbers:
For B&H, you stated 22 times, in your table, CAGR=42.5%, at 10 years 1.425^10=34.52 times?
For Timed, you have 41 times, in your table, CAGR=42.8% at 10 years 1.428^10=35.25 times?
Would you please clarify?
Also, I would like to reproduce your timing rule on Google Sheet. Can you share your spreadsheet formula on each column?
Thank you again
No. of Recommendations: 3
rayvt's table is from inception, about 16 years.
This is a risky trade:
TQQQ is 3x leveraged.
QQQ is about 50% in top 10 holdings.
ProShares UltraProQQQ TQQQ
15-year CAGR: 39%
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/tqqq/perform...% Portfolio Weight Company
8.62 NVIDIA Corp
7.04 Apple Inc
6.44 Microsoft Corp
4.81 Amazon.com Inc
3.82 Tesla Inc
3.69 Alphabet Inc Class A
3.65 Meta Platforms Inc Class A
3.43 Alphabet Inc Class C
3.05 Walmart Inc
2.95 Broadcom Inc
47.5 total top 10 holdings
No. of Recommendations: 4
Rayvt wrote: There were 20 trades (10 sells, 10 buys) in that period.
Would you please provide the buy and sell dates? I'm having a hard time replicating this.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Sure. Mine is Excel 2003, seemed to upload to google sheets just fine.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bmTLHKnQ18...Ah, I did make one mistake in my post. Since TQQQ inception there have been 15 trades, not 20. 2/11/2010 - 11/6/2025
4/2/09 Buy
8/31/10 Sell
9/20/10 Buy
12/1/11 Sell
1/18/12 Buy
8/9/12 Sell
8/16/12 Buy
1/31/13 Sell
3/5/13 Buy
4/12/16 Sell
7/12/16 Buy
1/9/19 Sell
3/12/19 Buy
3/31/22 Sell
1/27/23 Buy
TQQQ-qqq-timing tab computes the timing. Rows 91-122 have the signals, which are computed in columns E, F, and G. Col H has the
trades.
Col E shows if the QQQ close is the highest in the last 90 days.
Col F is the number of those that occurred in the last 90 days.
If that is zero, it's the "OUT" signal.
TQQQ tab has the B&H and Timed daily returns.
Tab QQQ-daily-3xO-O is a trial to simulate TQQQ before its inception. The best fit is actual 2.76X instead of 3X.
No. of Recommendations: 3
This is a risky trade:
TQQQ is 3x leveraged.
QQQ is about 50% in top 10 holdings.
Indeed.
Very risky trade. Hence the necessity for timing.
Won't last forever.
Get it while the getting is good.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Mine is Excel 2003
Aahh, how I envy you. 2003 is the last decent version, without that ribbon BS. A few months ago I bought a Microsoft Surface Pro 11 with Snapdragon CPU. To my surprise ALL my (very) old software runs emulated, with one exception: Office! I tried all of them: My beloved Office 2000, then Office XP, then Office 2003. At least Excel (I didn´t try the other programs) in all of them starts but soon crashes. Can you believe it? A Microsoft computer and every software runs in emulated mode, apart from a piece of software from Microsoft itself? Now I have Office 2024 on it --- and utterly hate it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
It is not difficult to get a copy of Office 2003.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Maybe I was not clear. As I wrote many books about them I have them all: Office 2003 and XP and 2000; the normal versions, the developer versions, even still some beta versions. And, yes, I use 2003 on my desktop (a DualBoot iMac which I use as a Windows machine; Heresy, I know).
But: All those old Office versions are compiled for Intel CPU´s. My travel computer, a MS Surface Pro 11, though has a Snapdragon CPU, the ARM architecture used in Android smartphones/tablets. That CPU is far better suited for mobile computers than the Intel CPU´s Microsoft used in previous generations of their Surface computers. But older software, compiled for Intel CPU´s, runs emulated (Windows 11 has an emulation layer for ARM CPU´s).
That works very well with all my old software --- except MS Office. ALL Intel compiled Office versions of Excel crash. As Excel for me is the most important software at all I am therefore forced to use on this computer Office 2024/365, as this is the only MS Office available in a native ARM version.
