No. of Recommendations: 12
SAHMREALTIME above 0.5 is another possible recession indicator, but this is now followed by the FED and so today it might just be a FED rate cut indicator.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME======= more GTT links =================
Industrial Production: Total Index (INDPRO)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EepqAdvance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EepkGrowth and Trend: A Simple, Powerful Technique for Timing the Stock Market, Posted on January 18, 2016
The available monthly signals are:
Real Retail Sales Growth (yoy)
Industrial Production Growth (yoy)
Real S&P 500 EPS Growth (yoy), modeled on a total return basis.
Employment Growth (yoy)
Real Personal Income Growth (yoy)
Housing Start Growth (yoy)
Empirically, for the U.S. economy, the strongest historical recession indicator is Real Retail Sales Growth.
Another accurate recession indicator is Industrial Production Growth.
https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt...Philosophical Economics’ Growth-Trend Timing (Redux), July 16, 2019
"Like most trend-following strategies, the strength of GTT hasn’t been in generating outsized returns; it has been in maintaining returns while managing losses."
https://allocatesmartly.com/philosophical-economic... 