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Thinking of the Charlie Munger today, with Berkshire up $30,000 per A share in a single day and it’s only a 4% move on the day.

Thinking about people here that paid less than $60,000 per share 25 years ago and earlier (50% move on cost in a day!). Or the people that bought it at $78,000 as recently as 2008 (38% move on cost in a day).

As Munger said, “hold the damn stock.”

A lot here correctly identified Berkshire and Buffett as a long term compounder (masters of capital allocation and fiduciary responsibility). A few have probably never sold a single share. If that’s you, excellent work.

And the really fantastic thing about having Buffett keep the share price within a rational range, is that despite incredible increases in business performance and market capitalisation, it’s still a fantastic hold on an absolute basis and probably a better buy than the index.

Ha!, while you were posting this, I was posting about selling. I indeed bought at $78,000 after the big meltdown, and have held it. I recently did a conversion and and chipping away at some B shares. I'm torn between two wise men, "Hold the damn stock" Charlie and Willian Bernstein "If you've won the game, it's okay to stop playing".

Even Charlie sold relatively small amounts (relative to his total holding) of Berkshire stock from time to time. IIRC he sold a bunch in late 2007 just before the GFC. Just saying....

Even Charlie sold relatively small amounts (relative to his total holding) of Berkshire stock from time to time. IIRC he sold a bunch in late 2007 just before the GFC. Just saying....

Even Charlie needed some folding cash from time to time lol

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1078511/00...

Yeah that was great timing by Charlie. Sold close to a multi-year high!

Yeah that was great timing by Charlie. Sold close to a multi-year high!

I always thought this next move was even more impressive. Charlie was amazing

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1078511/00...

"This Form 4 is being filed to report a private sale of shares of Class A Common Stock to family members, in exchange for a promissory note."

I always thought this next move was even more impressive. Charlie was amazing.

Agree 💯

<<Ha!, while you were posting this, I was posting about selling. I indeed bought at $78,000 after the big meltdown, and have held it. I recently did a conversion and and chipping away at some B shares. I'm torn between two wise men, "Hold the damn stock" Charlie and Willian Bernstein "If you've won the game, it's okay to stop playing". >>

Maybe this will help to tip the scale for you. When I attended a Berkshire Meeting
in the late 90's Warren said "You could come at my Aunt Katie (original investor)
with a Crow Bar and she wouldn't sell any of her Berkshire Stock."

And I suppose it depends on personal circumstances. For example, I sold a good amount a year ago, to take my allocation down from 90% to 40% and reduce fx risk (I don’t live in the US).

I’m telling myself that was okay, as not even Charlie would recommend that much concentration. But it still hurts on a day like this.

Buffett the grand master 99% BRK.

I’m also mindful of three risks to the share price in the medium term, which could present a buying opportunity.

A general market decline that hits the (albeit less significant) equity portfolio.

Lumpy insurance results cause a temporary decline in underwriting profitability in the non Geico insurance businesses. 2024 was an incredible year.

A general lack of interest in Berkshire once Buffett retires. Combined with a growing cash pile.

All three are irrelevant in the long term of course and it can be argued that some of those are long term positives.

While I continue to "hold the damn stock,", Wall Street appears to be saying "buy the damn stock" which probably is contributing to the pop today;-) Snippet from Barron's:

Two Wall Street analysts—Meyer Shields of KBW and Brian Meredith of UBS—raised their price targets on Berkshire.

“Geico appears to have firmly turned the corner with strong sequential growth in policies in force and continued attractive underwriting margins,” wrote UBS analyst Brian Meredith. Geico’s underwriting margin was about 19% in the period and for the year, way ahead of its target of around 5%. Meredith, who has a Buy rating on the stock, lifted his price target on the Class A shares to $836,135 from $803,444. He boosted his 2025 earnings estimate to $31,565 from $30,297 per Class A share, a roughly 5% increase. Berkshire Hathaway now trades for about 23 times that estimate.

Shields boosted his price target on Class A stock to $775,000 from $750,000, and lifted his earnings-per-share estimate for 2025 to $31,600 from $30,140. He maintains a Market Perform rating on the stock.

"Late in the year we increased our ownership of the utility operation from about 92% to 100% at a cost of roughly $3.9 billion, of which $2.9 billion was paid in cash with a balance in Berkshire “B” shares."

Not exactly a holder either -- although we can quibble about materiality here.

On a related topic, I was pretty rattled by Ajit selling. Did we ever get to the bottom of that?

As I've mentioned here before, my first substantial BRK purchase was an A share for $60K (+/- a couple of percent) during spring break 2000. (Next time I'm really bored, I can head for the basement and find the binder with the exact price and date.) (And commission!). I continued to steadily add to the position x many years.

Since retirement, I now sell 1.125% of my BRK every quarter to fund most of our living expenses, at least until I start collecting SS at age 70. While those quarterly sales are ostensibly Jan 1, Apr 1, July 1, and October 1, I have been known to jump the gun by up to a few months when the price has had one of these occasional sudden increases.

---------------

In other news: Many years ago when I started in practice as an oncologist, I tended to start the occasional reply to a patient/family member/nurse's question with, "Well, I don't have a crystal ball, but..."

Presumably I used that line too habitually, as after a few years of this my staff got together and bough me a substantial (3-4 lbs?) clear glass spherical paperweight for my birthday. It sat on my desk for the next 25 years or so (and I won't say that I never consulted it) (1)

Anyhow, DS2 recently went into practice in a closely related specialty, so for his last birthday I gave him my crystal ball with a note to the effect that I hoped it will serve him as well as it served me.

----------------

So, absent my crystal ball, I jumped the gun and sold the March 31 tranche last week at $482.

I may have to ask him to consult the orb and see if I should sell the June 30 tranche now, while the getting is good.

For the moment, I guess I'm stuck asking you guys?

-- sutton

(1) (for one thing, the Oncologists' Union forbids the use of the words "never" and "always")

Jim, I bet that if you didn't so already before that today you can't resist to join me on the dark side of Berkshire = buying Puts.

A bottle of sparkling wine (not champagne, I am thrifty and risk averse :-) ?

My plan for selling my Berkshire is when I need money to pay for my Panda Express (or similar) to sell a bit. Little bit of luck and it will appreciate faster than I'm eating it.

Jim, I bet that if you didn't so already before that today you can't resist to join me on the dark side of Berkshire = buying Puts.
A bottle of sparkling wine (not champagne, I am thrifty and risk averse :-) ?

Not going to take a bet I already know I'll lose : )
I did in fact buy some today, but at a level that is purely play money for entertainment.

Besides, I'm not that fond of champagne. More of a red burgundy man these days. I just had a nice glass of my favourite Beaune Les Marconnets.
An underpriced one, of course--I'm a value investor, after all.

Jim

I love red wine, but unfortunately my body does not (after just 1-2 glasses sweating in the night, feeling unwell in the morning). White is ok though, sparkling wine, beer too.

I recently read somewhere about a study (Scientific American?) of researchers trying to find out what component in red wine causes this problem for many people. Their result: Try cheap wines! Because of less exposure to sun the component they identified as probable cause is lower than in more expensive ones.

Beaune Les Marconnets
I'll bite, vintage?

So for a buy-and-hold perspective and I write this to entertain you...but give some insight as to the actual long term and particularly what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and others accomplished over the last 50 years, one month and 14 days:

Rounding the numbers some, I think today the roughly $5,000 of Berkshire I inherited went up - in this one day - $800,000.

One of the true secrets to investing is time!

Dealraker, hall of fame.

Rounding the numbers some, I think today the roughly $5,000 of Berkshire I inherited went up - in this one day - $800,000.

I requested Grok 3 to comment on above including letting it know Berkshire went up 4.11% today.

==========

Let’s work this out together. If a 4.11% increase in your Berkshire equals $800,000, we can calculate your total Berkshire before that jump.

The formula is:
Original Berkshire × (4.11/100) = 800,000

Re-arranging:
Original Berkshire = (800,000)/(0.0411)

Now, let’s crunch the numbers:
Original Berkshire = 19,464,720.19

So, your Berkshire was about $19.46 million before the increase. Add the $800,000 gain, and your total Berkshire now would be roughly $20.26 million. Does that sound right That’s an impressive nest egg! Well done & Congratulations!

==========

It was a big day for me too. My BRK went up half a year's living expenses. The amount I sold will cover an entire year. Then there is this:

Rounding the numbers some, I think today the roughly $5,000 of Berkshire I inherited went up - in this one day - $800,000.

OK, it was a big day for all of us, just that some have bigger big days than me.

Uncle Warren has been a very good money manager for us, and he accomplished it while being the largest taxpayer ever, and only taking a 100k salary.

Baybrooke, dad owned a whopping 100 shares of Berkshire, not worth much even relative to inflation in early 1975. I thought, if not mistaken, that the stock was up about 5% at some point today before slightly coming back down. I just right-brained it and tossed out a rounded figure.

The point of it really is that so many call him grandpa or old man Buffett or whatever, so trapped in the moment...they just do not grasp what was accomplished at Berkshire over time.

Oh, add that I inherited 25 shares of Berkshire as did my sister, brother, and step-mother. None ever sold a share in their lifetime.

The point of my post is that over the years, and the years past fast people, I have participated in Berk forums. In the beginning I owned about $1 mil of the combo of Berk and AJ Gallagher, both not much covered by Wall Street and both never considered to be THE place to be as far as the heat of the moment.

So during this time the Berk forums (Thank goodness not today!!!! The forum is great today) would be over-taken for years by Buffett bashers, the "old man out of it" and "near dead man who didn't understand technology" and whatnot. Cisco, Amazon...they all were the focus of those down on Buffett, we went years of "Bezos should be the head of Berkshire," or "John Chambers is god of investing" and the like.

I owned 25 shares of Berk and 62,500 shares of AJ Gallagher and thought to myself, "All I have to do is watch. I don't need a deep analysis, Mr. Buffett will take of that. My goal is to be emotionally stable and hold the damn stock."

My net worth just holding the two stocks above has gone from about $1 mil during this time to almost $40 mil. And again, my post is about business ownership, that you don't need what you don't need. But you do need patience.

“None ever sold a share in their lifetime.“

A lot of people wish they could say that. Well played!

I will be telling my eldest son this story tonight at dinner. He has been a shareholder since he was 3 days old. He is studying the Buffett, Munger way and gets it. I am optimistic he will learn from my mistakes (too much tinkering and distraction on things that were not important. Worrying about a little over valuation at times. I have improved over the years but was too slow to learn).

Your story of holding compounders for a lifetime, is a great demonstration of zooming out and avoiding short term noise. There is a real trap for people to over analyse. Take a simple idea and take it seriously, as Munger said.

So EVBigMacMeal here is a case worth considering: About 2015 my investing club, a long sustaining organization begun in 1954, bought AJG. It was growing 15% plus, 3,8% yield, at less than 15 imes eps. The price $36.

Was about 2 years later 2017-2018 the value guys got quite anxious, AJG pe had hit 22. The unison chant, " The stock is above the 15 times earning line thus we are borrowing from the future and the stock is a sell." The club sold at $80.

Today AJG goes for $225 or so.

The club did exactly the same thing with BRO some 25 years earlier. If we had kept BRO, which several of us did personally, it would have been well over a 100 bagger.

Those 'slightly over valued' moves can be costly...depending of course on whatever else you do with your net sales cash.

Actually AJG sells today for $325 ish per share.

nd I thank you.

“Those 'slightly over valued' moves can be costly...depending of course on whatever else you do with your net sales cash.“

Yep, a good example. And as I understand it, Buffett would advocate only selling if the capital was needed for some significantly better investment - that is something you understand as well as the thing your selling and which on sale. Selling a compounder you understand well through years of ownership, just because it got to intrinsic value or something, is not a great reason for selling. Further, it’s worth considering that for most of us our circle of competence is much smaller than Buffett’s and when we sell, we might be moving into something of lower quality and sustainability and that’s a big problem. I am teaching my children, that when they find a great long term opportunity, load up and hold on. If you need more capital for something later work and save hard. Only sell if the valuation gets truly ridiculous, or you have actually truly found something you understand better and are almost certain it’s a way better opportunity. But don’t sell just because it fairly valued, or even a little over valued.

Beaune Les Marconnets
I'll bite, vintage?

I'm a big fan of the 2017, which is what I was drinking.
I like many of the wines from Remoissenet with two-digit prices.

Jim

I told the young people at work that they'll hit an era when the (hopefully unrealized) loss during a downturn will be the cost of a car, and they'll cringe some, but it will be ok. Eventually, such a loss will resemble the price of a car. I told them the counterpart to this is they'll come to an era when their gains, as well, will outpace their compensation from work.

Most of these folks have a great shot at becoming TSP millionaires one day (that is, if this current lot doesn't disassemble the entirety of government). One of them told the story of how by simply following the course for 33 year of employment, they grew it to a sum of $2.4m. This was a very hands-off participant. The highest grade they achieved on the gov't pay scale was GG-13, not a crazily highly compensated level. Time and persistence are powerful, when wielded by a patient investor.

Looking on the interwebs, that bottle is $70 here in the US. What’s the price in Monaco ?

I’m a deep value wine drinker apparently. 😆🤔

*Eventually, the price of a house. Not a car. But I think you all get it.

The $50 a month I started at, in my investing arc, has turned out such that I have a 40-50 year horizon to where the Monte Carlo simulations (I do way too many) say that I have no financial cares, ever. It wasn't magic, or an inheritance, or a windfall - just a few decades of letting time do what it does, and reading a lot of 10ks and 10qs to make sure the money was applied to a sensible choice.

Looking on the interwebs, that bottle is $70 here in the US. What’s the price in Monaco ?

Sounds right. I think I paid 61 euros straight from the winemaker.

But bear in mind there are multiple houses that sell wine from Beaune Les Marconnets. It's only a few hectares (22 acres), but French inheritance law generally means that fields be split up, so lots of folks own some land, then the little pieces get bought and sold.

The particular winemaker I like is Remoissenet, so it was theirs I was drinking. They own vines in quite a number of good locations, and (unsually for this region) vinify and sell the wine themselves. Their "house style" matches my tastes, and several of their wines in the $40-90 euro range are amazing. Their Vosne-Romanee (a very fancy name if you know your fancy wines) is 86 euros, and it three times as tasty (in a good year) as ones costing three times as much. I don't buy their super pricey stuff (e.g., Montrachet Grand Cru at 1000/bottle). But I don't turn down samples when I see them at a wine fair.

Sorry, I guess this digression counts as way off topic, but another thread today mentions 8 digit portfolios, so maybe not : )

Jim

Sorry, I guess this digression counts as way off topic

OK, I'll keep the OT rolling with a story you'll like. We flew into Paris, headed south, and made it as far as Beaune. Nice stone building with a peaceful restaurant. We were settling in for an intimate jet lagged dinner when in come a pile of American tourists with a big wine carrier. Dread turned to interest as it turned out we were sharing this little spot with: An American who owned a Grand Cru Estate; The critic who does the Bourgogne for Robert Parker; a major New Yore purchaser; and her husband, some Blackrock exec. They were tasting a variety of wines ranging from wines for sale to rare bottles of historical significance. "would you like to join us?" "Ummm, don't mind if we do". The people in the wine business focused on what was for sale, while Blackrock dude and I quietly kept our glasses full of the rare ones. Not a bad evening of wine tasting.

keepin' it rollin'....you can fit 13 cases into a BMW 3 series with no passengers....from Beaune to Brussels.

Jim,

Am I close? Is this the one? Taxes ($4.00) and shipping ($17.00) add another 21 bucks. I think I'll peruse the French aisle at our traffic circle liquor store and see if there is a reasonable facsimile. We don't have sales tax here in NH, so that must be some kind of import tax. Love good French wine...worked in Paris years ago.

https://www.jjbuckley.com/wine/2017-domaine-de-la-...

Maybe we are not that far OT. I'm not surprised this board has vast experience with quality Burgundies. If you have the acumen to "just hold the damn stock", the rewards are there. Let those day traders drink two-buck Chuck.

Am I close? Is this the one

Well, speaking from entirely personal taste*, I have have such nice experiences with Remoissenet lately that I'd rather switch regions than switch producers in this case : )
Tonight I had this (random US link) https://www.maisonduprixwines.com/products/remoiss...
The comment would be in the range of OMG. (Of course my lovely spouse is a Cordon Bleu chef, so the food might have slanted my views)
Still, I have definitely paid three times as much for much worse wine.
Note that at the bottom of that web page, the recommended alternatives suggested cost $3499, $3575, $4175, and $5995 per bottle. In that context, $86 looks pretty good.
Being someone keen to pay attention to business economics, I actually chewed out them out once for charging so little for it. Dumb move. https://xkcd.com/958/

Jim

* very different from most folks, I like 'em smooth and drinkable and untannic, not what most critics would call "balanced"
For Burgundies, I look for something that smells so nice you conclude that exhaling is a waste of time.

I have have such nice experiences with Remoissenet lately that I'd rather switch regions than switch producers in this case : )
* very different from most folks, I like 'em smooth and drinkable and untannic, not what most critics would call "balanced"
For Burgundies, I look for something that smells so nice you conclude that exhaling is a waste of time.

I don't know much about wines, but that won't deter me from sharing my admittedly unsophisticated perspective. It's just a beverage! Either you like it or you don't. Don't overthink it :)

While my view may be unsophisticated, the Office the US Surgeon General was downright uncharitable in their advisory released last month (Jan 2025)
https://www.hhs.gov/surgeongeneral/reports-and-pub...

Life has risks - at least if you really want to live, to enjoy life. So it's a balancing act and everybody has to decide for oneself how much risk he is willing to take in exchange for what.

Unfortunately nowadays western governments and an ever swelling number of bureaucrats employed who have to justify their existence and pay are taking away those options more and more, deciding for us how much risk is acceptable (none of course, now not only when we would endanger others, but now also when we endager ourselves) and more and more control everything and everyone up into the last detail - taking away freedom with it.

Unfortunately that will continue and become continously more extreme as it's an built-in trait of bureaucracies to continously expand themselves and their reach and power, see Max Weber, German sociologist.

Said, hobby race driver

To avoid misunderstandings: My previous post was NOT meant to critizise Baybrooke's post. That post was only a catalyst, reminding me on that "government.... risk... protection... control... liberties" theme I easily get agitated about.

I’m a deep value wine drinker apparently. 😆🤔
Buy and hold can work wonders for less expensive wines, if they're well chosen!
I live in rural Virginia in the Monticello AVA, there are about 40 vineyards/wineries within about 45 minutes, all in picturesque areas, so it's fun to explore. Small wineries popping up in deeply rural Virginia has been a remarkable transformation.

To come back to finance:
In Northern Virginia, there are also AI data centers popping up in beautiful rural areas. Big, ugly, noisy - hugely expensive.
I strongly suspect that the hundreds of billions dollars being poured into AI data centers is a mistake. I'm also appalled at the level of mistakes that even the newest CoT AI's make. I'm beginning to think about how I can short the AI boom (well, not short, but well chosen puts). There is a board for discussing AI impact on finance https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?bid=125

very different from most folks, I like 'em smooth and drinkable and untannic
Chacun a son gout, I like a bit of 'grip'.

very different from most folks, I like 'em smooth and drinkable and untannic
...
Chacun a son gout, I like a bit of 'grip'.

I used to be like that.
But I'm older now. Clearly losing my grip.

Jim

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