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Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
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Modi agrees to drop Russian oil for US-Venezuela Oil.
https://www.dw.com/en/indias-oil-shake-up-can-vene...After months of pressure over India's purchases of discounted Russian and sanctioned Iranian crude, New Delhi appears to have bowed to US President Donald Trump's demand by agreeing to phase out Russian oil imports and shift toward buying more barrels from the United States — and potentially Venezuela.
Trump said India could buy $500 billion (€424 billion) worth of US energy and coal, along with technology, agricultural and other products.1)This agreement will take time to implement. Could be a year.
2)This agreement will pressure Russia to make concessions in peace talks.
3)Will the volume from Venezuela be enough to make up for Russian crude?
4)Is this deal the real reason behind the Venezuela coup d'tat? A strategy behind US actions in Venezuela?
5)Russian is an cheap oil supplier. Why would India make the deal? Tariffs on India are cut.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/trump-cuts-india-...US President Donald Trump has announced a trade deal to reduce tariffs on India, saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.
Trump said he was cutting levies on Indian goods to 18%. He had previously imposed 25% “reciprocal” tariffs on many products, plus an additional 25% for New Delhi’s purchases of Moscow’s oil.A 50% tariff cut to 18%.
No. of Recommendations: 15
Modi agrees to drop Russian oil for US-Venezuela Oil.
I heard that, and it sounded like good news (if implausible to me) so I wanted to read more.
I didn't immediately find anything announced from India.
The Financial Times headline was "India’s Narendra Modi ‘agrees’ to stop buying Russian oil, Donald Trump says"
The interesting thing was that the quotation marks on "agrees" are theirs, not mine.
The implication was that there might be some plausibility gap in the chain
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
given trump's near hollowing out of staff with competence in formalizing binding agreements...
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=683106744peter zeihan remains doubtful whether any of trump's 1-on-1 EO tariff exchanges\declaration (numbering ~200) for bribes has resulted in binding enforceable trade agreements. that would not allow him to change his mind on a whim.
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According to an oil industry analyst quoted in an article I posted on the Policy board, Venezuelan crude is a good substitute for Russian: heavy sour, so Indian refineries would not need to be extensively reworked. A happy coincidence that the US seized control of Venezuelan production just before this agreement?
Current Venezuelan production is not adequate to meet all of Indian's need. The net sifter says India imports about 4.8Mbpd. Of that, some 41% is from Russia, or a bit under 2Mpbd, double what Venezuela now produces, but well within historical Venezuelan capability. As Exxon declared Venezuela "uninvestable", is The large purchase of US goods by India going to be US made oil field equipment needed to expand production in Venezuela?
The bottom line is just how much India is willing to pay, for access to the US market?
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
The large purchase of US goods by India going to be US made oil field equipment needed to expand production in Venezuela?
The bottom line is just how much India is willing to pay, for access to the US market?
India appears willing to spend a lot to secure a reliable source of oil they can readily use with minimal changes to their refinery infrastructure.
The US tariff reduction is a sweet prize in addition to the solution to the India oil sourcing and reliability problem.
No. of Recommendations: 1
The US tariff reduction is a sweet prize in addition to the solution to the India oil sourcing and reliability problem.
Is the US "reliable".
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
Is the US "reliable".
IMO, Venezuela would be--because they have an actual stake in being reliable.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
IMO, Venezuela would be--because they have an actual stake in being reliable.
The CEO of Exxon would disagree on that point. Besides, Venezuela is no longer a sovereign country. The US has declared it, and it alone, controls Venezuelan resources.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 0
The Financial Times headline was "India’s Narendra Modi ‘agrees’ to stop buying Russian oil, Donald Trump says"
The interesting thing was that the quotation marks on "agrees" are theirs, not mine.
The implication was that there might be some plausibility gap in the chain
It is about the powers that were. Case in point the Harvard being denied funding disappeared from the headlines. Most of us thought all of that was over with. It is not. The admin picked up where it left off. The powers that were are not fighting all of this in the headlines. As if it would inflame the situation.
