No. of Recommendations: 9
The quality of Microsoft and Apple are obvious. I would still be willing to wager, but won't live long enough to settle it up, that both will at some point underperform the market for "the next 20-30 years" and/or give little to no return for a decade or two...or three.
Valuation isn't just a price-to-earnings ratio, it is a portion of the total economy that is or is not sustainable. Things change, too many brilliant minds with moats and society's limits of winner-take-all have historical presence that will repeat. All the surety of the hyper-scalers of this era is simply of this era. The next era will be different.
In 1994 my business merged with AJ Gallagher and my life completely changed in that I finally had the opportunity to add to my investments (which I had inherited in a trust and kept- including Berk). I bought all the insurance brokers but mainly Poe and Brown which is now Brown and Brown. I have over 100 times my investment Brown and nearly that counting div's with AJG. These are "scalers" too and they are thriving today. So...
...this "thriving" will come to an end at some point, count on it. Something will interrupt it, somehow and some way. I read over time those that are quite sure of this and that sustaining, then time passes and nothing is heard. A new thing come and a new belief with it.
Life is great if you can stand it.
