would it make sense to now switch to 2 year Treasury bonds from the 3 month Treasury Bills?

For you or me to answer that presupposes we know more about the future economic trajectory than anybody (everybody) else, which at least for me certainly isn't true. It's a coin toss.

The best advice is to think personally. If the 2 year yield is currently high enough to meet your investment goals, but wouldn't be if the yield were somewhat lower, then locking in might make sense.

Bear in mind that the 2 year mark is the term that is most extremely affected by changes in short term rates. Higher because inflation is about to spike? Lower because the economy is about to fall off a cliff? Beats me. I do not envy Mr Powell his job. But I would wager that his replacement will be 100% in favour of extremely low rates and high inflation, since that is what is desired by the guy who picks the person for the job.

Just to mess with your thinking, consider TIPS, any duration. No inflation risk, and the yields have popped more than treasuries.

Jim

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