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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: rnam ✭☼  😊 😞
Number: of 1198 
Subject: Re: DG = DLTR
Date: 01/25/25 6:31 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 6
I do not subscribe to SA. Just registering allows me to read most articles.

Purchase 100 shares of Dollar General at $68.44
Sell to Open 1 $90 Call dated January ’27 @ $9.83
Sell to Open 1 $90 Put dated January ’27 @ $28.35
Net Cash Outlay Per Share Today = $30.27
There are only 2 outcomes in this scenario:

Best-Case Scenario (If the stock closes at $90 or higher, +32% of today’s quote)
The calls will be exercised
You'll sell your original 100 shares for $9,000
You'll likely collect $472 in dividends
The puts will expire worthless
Final Position = No Shares & $9,000
Cash on Cash Net Profit = $6,446 ($9,000 - $3,027 + 472)
Total Return 213%
Annualized Return over 726 Days = 107%

Worst-Case Scenario (If the stock closes below the $90 strike)
The calls expire worthless
You keep the original 100 shares
You'll likely collect $472 in dividends
The puts will be exercised
You'll buy another 100 shares
You will need an additional $9,000 of cash
Final Position = 200 shares
Start-to-Finish Net Cash Outlay = -$12,026.50
Average Cost = $60.13 ($12,026.50/200) $60.13
Share price may fall 12% to reach the breakeven
A partial reversion to the $101 price target will turn a 32% share price increase into a 213% return. In the event shares do not meet the strike, the position can be liquidated for a positive return at any level above $60.13 or 12% below today’s quote. Owning shares at $60.13 would have been a positive position every single day since 2015 when Dollar General was generating $3.95/share in earnings.
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