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U.S. crude oil exports surge to record as tankers flock to Gulf Coast during Iran war

The Port of Corpus Christi has never been busier as tankers from around the world flock to the U.S. Gulf Coast to load up on crude oil during the Iran war.

The Texas port was the third-largest oil export terminal in the world before the war behind Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia and Basra in Iraq.

Its importance has only grown since, as U.S. crude oil exports have surged to a record and the two big Persian Gulf ports are largely cut off from the world due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/03/us-crude-oil-expor...

Everything going according to plan. The seizure of Venezuela's oil, and Panama's canal, all part of 17D chess.

How long will the gravy train last? We old pharts remember 67, when the Israeli Army drove all the way across Sinai to the east bank of Suez, forcing the closure of the canal, and sat there until they withdrew from the Sinai after the 73 war. After the Israelis withdrew, Egypt could get to work removing the sunken ships and unexploded ordinance. iirc, the canal was not fit for use until 75. Trump the Conqueror is nearly 80. An 8 year closure of Hormuz will probably meet or exceed his decision time horizon.

They said out loud, two years ago, what they were up to.

Steve

Here is link to daily average US oil production. It has fallen since the start of the war.

So the increased export is due to lowering reserves (both government and company). Not sure why MAGA is excited about this!

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/weekly-...

Aussi

Here is link to daily average US oil production. It has fallen since the start of the war

Look at a longer time horizon. Big inventory build in November and December, as if big oil knew what was coming. Big oil may have been fearing things would go badly in Venezuela, in which case their inventory build would have been perfectly timed. But Rodriquez bent over for Trump the Conqueror. Now, they are drawing down their inventory, which is still above the average prior to November 2025. They will probably continue the drawdown for a couple-three more weeks. Then the media will start screaming about "shortage", to kick in the afterburners on price, just in time for Memorial Day, because hype and hysteria is what USian media does these days.

Steve

Here is link to daily average US oil production. It has fallen since the start of the war.

Let's look at what the attached dramatic looking graph actually shows. The early Feb. peak was 13.73 b/d. The low end point now was 13.59 b/d. So the dramatic looking graph represents a 1% drop - from Feb. to April. Much ado about nothing. Many possible reasons for the small change.

Aussie is correct that increased export is due to export demand for oil - implying that domestic demand has fallen a little. Might this all possibly be due to higher prices? Driven by a war not legal under the Constitution?

Look at a longer time horizon. Big inventory build in November and December, as if big oil knew what was coming. Big oil may have been fearing things would go badly in Venezuela, in which case their inventory build would have been perfectly timed.

I mean, probably not. It's tempting to try to fit everything into a narrative around big splashy events, but that's not always what's going on. Global oil inventories had been growing and growing for quite a while. Global oil stocks hit four year highs in October, before there was any visible movement towards Venezuela - and everywhere, not just in the U.S.:

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-dece...

...plus Venezuela is a tiny little bit of the oil market. Oil prices didn't really move much around the Venezuela operation. So it's probably just that macro forces had been leading to a big build up of oil inventories over the latter half of 2025 generally - not some conspiratorial machinations by Big Oil.

As for current oil production, we're still producing more oil than we did last year - or ever apart from the late 2025 peaks. So we're still pumping a shirt-ton. There's been a slight - less than 1.5% - reduction in output since the war started - but overall, we're still pumping like gangbusters. The slight dip might just be noise, or a continuation of the reduction of production in response to the oil glut from earlier in the year.

Or it might be a response to market conditions. Now's probably not a time when we need a lot of physical oil here in the United States. Oil is needed in Europe and Asia, but not particularly here. Meanwhile, the U.S. is releasing many millions of barrels from the SPD in an effort to keep prices in check, which is a lot of extra oil physically here in the U.S. High prices will cause some short term demand destruction, everywhere - so you end up with less U.S. demand for oil. It will take some time for all the tanker routes and delivery systems to get rerouted, especially since some tankers are "locked in" inside the Persian Gulf for now. So it makes perfect sense that oil producers might shave a teeny-tiny bit off of production for the time being.

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