No. of Recommendations: 9
<ik>Would you mind posting a graph or a table with your valuation level.
Sure.
http://stonewellfunds.com/TrendEY_1916-2023.pngAs this is the smoothed earnings yield, low numbers mean "expensive", so I inverted the vertical scale. That makes "up" mean "expensive", the way people are used to seeing things.
Coupla more figures, since I have 'em.
5-year average trailing dividend yield (not cyclically adjusted!) compared to 50-year average dividend yield would suggest stocks have been running around 63% more fully valued than past average.
Latest figure would suggest 86% pricier than 50 year average.
5-year average trailing earnings yield (not cyclically adjusted!) compared to 50-year average would suggests stocks have been running around 51% more fully valued than past average.
Latest figure would suggest 60% pricier than 50 year average.
Based on S&P 500 non-financial companies price/sales, the current ratio (10.15) appears to show the index 50.1% more expensive than the average of the same ratio since 2000 (6.77).
Some small fraction of that is explained by a change in the mix of firms in the S&P 500: a few more high-net-margin firms have been added, and a few low-net-margin firms have been dropped, but it's not a night-and-day difference.
Jim
