No. of Recommendations: 18
Isn´t this very worth discussing it (from the non-replies to LongTermBRK´s answer unfortunately it doesn´t look like there is any interest)?I don't the reasoning much of a comfort. Earnings are cyclical, so a seemingly "reasonable" P/E on current earnings doesn't say much at all. There is a fraction of reported earnings which is particularly dubious in terms of longevity: the huge earnings some large firms (mostly AI-adjacent) are reporting based on the rise of the market value of their holdings of other firms (mostly AI-adjacent).
I've always been fond of the observation that at the end of August 1929, shortly before the famous crash, the median P/E among the US Industrials (using full year 1929 profits) was a pretty reasonable 18.63. CAPE was at 31.32, however.
Current CAPE is over 40, I believe.
This is not a prediction that US equity prices are going to tumble imminently. At a very very high macro level, simplifying the Kalecki-Levy corporate profit decomposition, very high corporate profits are the flip side of very high government deficits. Since US deficits are through the roof, so are US profits, and have been for a while.
Corporate profits as share of GDP:
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)/Gross Domestic Product | FREDFollowing that logic: as there is no prospect whatsoever of US deficits shrinking materially any time in the foreseeable future, maybe the profits will stay in a very elevated range (as share of GDP) for a long time. In short, the government is borrowing money from non-US sources and (indirectly) giving it to companies and their shareholders. That can go on for quite a while, though not forever.
A companion observation can be made about the dollar. There are *huge* portfolio flows into US equities right now. On average since 1980 they run around net zero, but in the last year it's running 2.8% of US GDP. For almost the first time, that's higher than the ex-US portfolio flows into treasuries, currently running around 2% of US GDP. I think the extreme equity influx is a mix of money flowing into the AI build-out and money simply chasing the current bull market. If that stops, given the deficits, it seems reasonable to expect downwards pressure on the US dollar. And given the breathtaking deficits, inflation through currency depreciation seems to be a not unreasonable expectation in the years to come--it's by far the least painful resolution to the Treasury's problems.
Jim