Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 0
SPCX is trading a a p/s of 100, and is not profitable. Do you think a leap put is a idea?
No. of Recommendations: 1
“ SPCX is trading a a p/s of 100, and is not profitable. Do you think a leap put is an idea?“. Buy or sell? :)
No. of Recommendations: 12
Probably so, but probably not yet.
The problem is that you have to be right about both direction and time frame. I'd wait till the shine has already started to fade, which could be a couple of weeks or a few years. If it's going to drop, it could drop a long way, so there's probably no hurry. Wait for a moment that there hasn't been a fresh high in at least a few months, some disappointing financial outcomes have come out (flat-to-down revenue, say), and the stock is sliding relative to market. Still risking your money, but getting all the omens lined up in the right direction probably increases your odds a fair bit.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
buy
No. of Recommendations: 0
Jim,
Great advice.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Jim,
Great advice.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Can we start an SPCX Board? I can see the stock as a trade, but not as an investment. The so-called valuation just seems crazy to me, especially if you look beyond the next 3-5 years. Is it the next Meta or Amazon? Is it a meme stock? I'd be interested to hear other points of view as I follow it going forward. P.S. I have the same view towards TSLA. It's not hostility, it's bewilderment. I just don't get it.
P.S. No posts about SPCX on the TSLA board yet. Different crowd?
abromber
No. of Recommendations: 1
“ buy“ Mark would you rather bet that musk can’t overpromise and promote for years, or buy leaps on the Nasdaq 100 in view of their new rules? Either way I’d wait 90 days to 6 months. Good luck, I’d rather bet on new sexy brkb.
No. of Recommendations: 4
buy
That's probably not bad advice, either. SpaceX is many things, but one of them is the world's biggest meme stock. So "up" is certainly possible.
So how to make a buck? I can imagine pretty good odds that the price won't stay at or very near its current levels. It will change. So maybe a long option strangle? With that strangle you make a whole lot of money if the price goes up a lot, and a whole lot of money if it goes down a lot, but lose a finite moderate amount if it stays in a tight range.
Or, similarly, a short put condor. The gains on big stock moves up or down are bounded, but the loss in the middle is smaller.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
" SpaceX is many things, but one of them is the world's biggest meme stock. So "up" is certainly possible."
The offering was 555 million shs. With the green shoe let's say 625 million shs in the current float.
The first day the reported volume was 500 million shs. Assuming double counting on the volume over 200 million IPO shs were sold day one.
WHO didn't stick to the agreement to not flip it? Retail only had 100 million shs so it wasn't them.
In the short term, the fundamentals of the businesses are totally irrelevant barring a, catastrophe.
From what Ive heard and read; Nasdaq 100 type funds MUST buy about 200 million shs in the next 20 days or so regardless of price.
Do the math.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Assuming double counting on the volume over 200 million IPO shs were sold day one.
WHO didn't stick to the agreement to not flip it? Retail only had 100 million shs so it wasn't them
Could it not have been retail flipping them more than once in a day?
No. of Recommendations: 1
“ Could it not have been retail flipping them more than once in a day?“ Most of retail was told that if they flip, they don’t get the next 3 hot deals. I doubt retail sold even 20 million shares, 20 percent of their allocation. The guys running the book are deciding where to fill the Nasdaq 100 type forced buyers. Hard to say how much volume is happening in other venues day traders, etc. The Wall Street casino now offers many, ways to gamble.
No. of Recommendations: 0
buy
That's probably not bad advice, either. SpaceX is many things, but one of them is the world's biggest meme stock. So "up" is certainly possible.
So how to make a buck? I can imagine pretty good odds that the price won't stay at or very near its current levels. It will change. So maybe a long option strangle? With that strangle you make a whole lot of money if the price goes up a lot, and a whole lot of money if it goes down a lot, but lose a finite moderate amount if it stays in a tight range.
Or, similarly, a short put condor. The gains on big stock moves up or down are bounded, but the loss in the middle is smaller.
Jim
Thanks. Those are good ideas. I am only comfortable with leaps and calls and puts.
