No. of Recommendations: 1
”For example, the first sentence ;you quoted is "EV’s will gradually replace oil use. If it were the case that 50% of all vehicles were EV’s, which is functionally impossible to achieve in the remote future, it would only reduce the world’s oil needs by about 10%. "
Motor vehicle fuel currently accounts for a hair under half of global crude oil use. Thus, a one half reduction would reduce global crude demand by about 24-25%, not by 10%. One could go on.
It's a post pushing a point of view and either selecting or making up "facts" to support that goal, not a conclusion drawn from a set of actual facts. Not many folks remember those, I suppose.”
Is it really that simple? Can anybody know for sure until we get there? We are talking about the unknown future. Among other things the exact answer I assume will depend on how much oil will be used in the future manufacturing of materials, mining for batteries and transporting of the EVs before we can start driving them. And on what the future energy source mix will be for the electric grids we will all use when charging the cars. It looks as if you have assumed all these factors to be zero. Is it possible that CrankyCharlie may have used different assumptions than you did in his calculation?
Maybe your assumptions are superior to Charlie’s if analyzed logically in detail, but to say with confidence that he is wrong and that the correct answer is somewhere between 24-25 per cent while accusing him of “pushing a point of view” and “selecting or making up facts” doesn’t feel exactly like it’s promoting an open discussion.
